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Sunday, December 6, 2015

Game of blame

The world is watching the climate summit in Paris. Of course, not all Indians will be watching: Some of them are too young to know the menace[me-nis(threats,भय)] they face from climate change. Over 8,00,000 babies will be born in India during the two weeks of international climate negotiations. Most of them will live long enough to experience climate change. But they will never have an opportunity at the polls to reward or punish today’s leaders for their success or failures in averting[u'vurt(prevent,रोकना)] a climate disaster.

Yet, even these 8,00,000 are not the most disenfranchised[dis-in'fran,chIzd(voteless,मताधिकारहीन)] or feeble[fee-bul(powerless,कमजोर)] Indians who will suffer the consequences['kón-si-kwun(t)s(result,परिणाम)] of climate change. There will be about three million Indians who will someday be grandchildren of these 8,00,000 babies. Climate scientists tell us that it is in approximately the lifetime of these grandchildren that much of the nuisance[nyoo-sun(t)s(pain,व्यथा)] of climate change will begin to register. Most of these grandchildren will live into the 22nd century, but they will be profoundly impacted by what today’s political leaders do. Scientifically plausible[plo-zu-bul(truthful,सच्चा)] disaster scenarios are abominable[u'bó-mi-nu-bu(terrible,भयावह)].

A large fraction of the most polluted cities are right here in India, which is rapidly expanding its consumption of and pollution from coal, which fills the air with pernicious[pu'ni-shus(harmful,नुकसानदायक)] smoke.

Burning coal is a uniquely insidious[in'si-dee-us(dangerous,खतरनाक)] contributor both to climate change in the future and to disease today. In ongoing joint research with Aashish Gupta, a demographer at the University of Pennsylvania, we find that Indian districts where new coal plants were opened between 2005 and 2012 saw a relative decrease in reported respiratory[ri'spi-ru-t(u-)ree(breathe related,स्वास् सम्बन्धी)] health.

To be sure, today’s average Indian did not start the problem of carbon emissions. Most of the historical blame should fall on powerful people who have long known about climate change but have not opposed it: Mainly political and business leaders in richer countries. But India’s carbon footprint is changing cursorily[kur-s(u-)ru-lee(quickly,तेज़ी से)].  Perhaps the only people truly inculpable[in'kúl-pu-bu(blameless,दोषरहित)] are the three million grandchildren not to be born for decades to come.

Most importantly, now is a time when action is more important than blame. India is like a pedestrian, the pedestrian should blame the irresponsible driver whose negligence almost kills her. But step out of the way of disaster first, rather than be flattened while vocalising objection.

It will not be easy to compel[kum'pe(force,मजबूर)] self-interested politicians in the US to take action on climate change. Yet, feasible strategies are available. Serious leadership from India and other countries may be able to form a coalition that incentivises[in'sen-tu,vIz(motivate,प्रोत्साहन)] the US to do something meaningful, perhaps by using trade penalties.

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