Hope, tempered by realism

A solution to the long-drawn-out Naga insurgency(rebellion,विद्रोह) was always on the cards. Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the helm(control,नियंत्रण) of affairs in Delhi added an urgency to the issue. Early in his term, Mr. Modi had publicly decided to push for an early and successful end to more than 15 years of talks with the Isak and Muivah-led National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN). However, to be honest, the timing of the ‘historic agreement’ between the government of India and NSCN was very sudden and came quite out of the blue, but was nevertheless a welcome development for peace in Nagaland, the Northeast region and beyond.

That not everything was clear about the ‘historic peace accord’ arrived at on August 3 was evident the next morning when almost all local newspapers in Nagaland described it as a ‘framework agreement’, with the long-time emissary to the NSCN leadership, V.S. Atem, even going to the extent of saying that it was a ‘preamble’ to the agreement on the Naga political issue. The government’s interlocutor(middle man,वार्तालापि), R.N. Ravi, confirmed to a local daily that the August 3 agreement was indeed a ‘framework agreement’.

First step

A ‘framework agreement’ and a ‘peace accord’ are perhaps not the same thing — the former at best can be taken as a prelude or basis for a final accord or settlement. Therefore, it would appear that there is still some work left for the two negotiating parties — the GoI and the NSCN — before they are able to give a closure to the peace talks.

This writer’s own impression is that through the ‘framework agreement’ a road map has been laid for the final solution to take shape and for it to be implemented on the ground, which will be quite another task. Perhaps the NSCN’s chief negotiator, Thuingaleng Muivah, who, along with government interlocutor Mr. Ravi, was the signatory, was aware of this when he talked about the ‘challenges’ brought about by this agreement.

Listening to both Mr. Modi and Mr. Muivah speak during the signing ceremony on the evening of August 3, it seemed that the NSCN leader appeared more circumspect compared to the Prime Minister and understandably so, given that Mr. Muivah and company will now have to bring on board all sections of the Naga people towards an ‘inclusive peace settlement’.

Both the central government and the NSCN will be well aware of this task at hand, given the bitter discord that was created in the body-politic of the Nagas by past accords such as the 16-point agreement or the notorious(infamous,कुख्यात) Shillong Accord, which were termed ‘sellouts’. The Shillong Accord was the basis on which the NSCN was formed by Isak Chishi Swu, Th. Muivah and S.S. Khaplang, among others.

Selling the deal

Signing an agreement with New Delhi is one part of the job. The more intricate(complex,जटिल) and hazardous(risky,जोखिम) part remains — that of convincing the large constituency back home, especially the rival armed groups, about the efficacy of the deal.

In the past, the Isak-Muivah-led NSCN had always set a high standard when it came to negotiating the best deal for the Nagas. Going by speculations about the kind of agreement reached, sans sovereignty(independent,प्रभुसत्ता) and integration, they will now have to convince the others that the latest deal may not be ideally the best but is the best possible under the given circumstances.

In my opinion, New Delhi will have to take joint responsibility, along with the NSCN, to take the agreement to the other armed Naga groups and bring them on board. The central government cannot simply sign the agreement with one group or transfer power to it but rather it should take the responsibility to guide the process towards a smooth and orderly transition(change,बदलाव) to the new arrangement. This may even include the need for an interim government inclusive of all principal elements of Naga national life.

The government will also have to clearly communicate to these other factions that there can be no separate negotiations with them and that the offer of the agreement arrived with the NSCN is applicable to all sections of the Naga people since the government cannot make more than one offer. The real peace accord in that sense may have to be reached among the diversity of Naga groups.

MHA sidelined?

Another significant factor is that the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), which handled the ceasefire with all the Naga armed factions, did not play any major role in the appointment of the present interlocutor or in the signing of the peace agreement on August 3. Credit must go to Prime Minister Modi for breaking new ground by directly supervising these talks, which were earlier the preserve of the MHA, known more for dilly-dallying than making any real effort to take the political initiative.

Though it is early days yet, any final solution between the Centre and the Nagas, assuming that the status of the new arrangement is going to be higher than the present Statehood, should come within the ambit(range,पहुच) of the Prime Minister’s Office. In fact, even at the time of Statehood, Nagaland was kept under the External Affairs Ministry and only later brought under the MHA and then too without consulting the Nagas.

Mr. Modi has talked about restoring the ‘pride and prestige’ of the Naga people. Mr. Muivah talked about trusting the Nagas and taking them into confidence for India’s needs. Such goodwill gestures should help define the new relationship between the Centre and the Nagas.

At the time of writing this piece, the details are still awaited on the contours of the August 3 agreement. It will, therefore, be premature to make any kind of judgment on the peace deal that has been announced by the Prime Minister directly. But, as Mr, Modi said in his remarks after witnessing the signing of the accord, it is indeed a “shining example of what we can achieve when we deal with each other in a spirit of equality and respect, trust and confidence”.

By logic, any peace agreement will have to take into consideration the interest of both parties involved. Without a give-and-take approach, negotiations are bound to fail. The latest peace accord brings with it the hope of being a novel political arrangement.