No Proof Required: An ideal MPC for India

As India moves towards the implementation of an inflation-targeting mechanism, the debate about the structure of this policy has intensified. Till date, monetary policy has been the exclusive domain of the RBI, and within the RBI, under the exclusive and sole discretion(prudent,समझदारी) of the governor. To be sure, the RBI has a large and competent staff that gives inputs to the governor. In addition, the governor has a seven-member technical advisory committee (TAC), composed of non-RBI experts who deliberate on and recommend monetary policy, including repo rates, to the RBI.

However, the RBI is not bound by the TAC’s recommendations. In this regard, the RBI governor has complete and absolute authority on monetary policy, as do his counterparts in Latin America (for example, Brazil, Chile, Mexico) and New Zealand (a partial list of countries where the central bank governor has absolute authority).

In March 2011, the previous UPA government appointed a nine-member Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC), under the chairmanship of former Supreme Court judge, Justice B.N. Srikrishna. The commission was to decide on various regulatory aspects of Indian financial institutions, including the RBI. Justice Srikrishna had just completed (June 2010) a tenure(period,काल) for the UPA government on the bifurcation(divide,दो भागो में बटना) of Andhra Pradesh, which eventually did happen in 2014.
UPA finance ministers (P. Chidambaram and Pranab Mukherjee) consistently had problems with RBI governors.

Possibly because of these strained(tensed,तनावपूर्ण) relationships, the FSLRC seemed to endorse(support,समर्थन) the view that the RBI’s wings needed to be clipped, and then some. In the first FSLRC report (V1.0, March 2013), the proposal for monetary policy implementation was as follows: “...the creation of an MPC that would determine the policy interest rate. In addition to the chairperson and one executive member of the board, the MPC would have five external members. Of these five, two would be appointed by the Central government, in consultation with the chairperson, while the remaining three would be appointed solely by the Central government.” However, V1.0 did allow the RBI governor veto power over MPC decisions under “extreme circumstances”.

The FSLRC’s V1.0 was a mixture of vote and veto — two members from the RBI (governor and deputy governor for economics and monetary policy), two external members selected by the governor and three selected by the Central government. All five would, however, formally be appointed by the Central government (ministry of finance, or MoF). Implicitly, four of the five external members of the MPC would have to agree to a course of action different from the governor’s to override him.

Subsequently, the RBI’s Urjit Patel Committee report, in January 2014, recommended an MPC with a different balance. The report advocated inflation-targeting along with an MPC, and the latter was to be constituted as follows: “The governor of the RBI will be the chairman of the MPC, the deputy governor in charge of monetary policy will be the vice chairman, and the executive director in charge of monetary policy will be a member. Two other members will be external, to be decided by the chairman and vice chairman on the basis of demonstrated expertise and experience in monetary economics, macroeconomics, central-banking, financial markets, public finance and related areas.” This report was noteworthy for the fact that it would be near-identical in its power structure to the present, no-MPC structure, that is, the RBI is in control. Even if both external members of the MPC disagreed with the governor, he would always have at least a 3-2 majority.

On July 23, the FSLRC responded with its Version 2.0 of the MPC, which would comprise of three members of the RBI (instead of two earlier) and four external members nominated by the MoF — and no extreme circumstances and no veto power! This recommendation goes against almost any definition of an independent central bank — and, in our view, will not be acceptable to the MoF or the government.

The table lists the practice of monetary policy in 15 selected countries. As is well-known, the US system of setting rates is based on “consensus(agreement,सहमति)”, with seven of the 12 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members being selected by the president and ratified by the Senate. The other five rotational members are regional bank heads and are, therefore (implicitly), appointed by the central bank.

The FSLRC’s V2.0 is comparable to a few of the selected countries — for example, Korea, Norway, the Philippines. While some sections of the media have suggested that the Indian structure is similar to Thailand’s, that is not the case. While Thailand does have a seven-member committee, all seven members are appointed by the central bank.

Our first proposed structure (and the one we really prefer) is that the MPC be a formal five (seven)-member body with the governor as chairman and four (six) outside professional experts as members. The tenure of each member should be five (or seven) years. The experts cannot be employees of either the RBI or the government of India. All four (six) members must have knowledge and expertise in macroeconomics and monetary and/ or fiscal policy. The government will have the right to suggest a list of names for the consideration of the RBI, but the governor will have the right to choose and appoint those he wants, subject to the above criteria. The decisions of the MPC will, however, be binding on the governor. This means that if, and only if, three (four) of the four (six) independent members of the MPC agree on a policy course different from that proposed by the governor, would he be obliged to accept their decision.

Israel seems to have the best mix among the existing systems. The governor chairs the MPC, consisting of six members, with three outside members selected by the government. In case of a tie, the chair has the deciding vote (not clear on Israel’s central bank website). This is our second proposed structure for the MPC, based on the best in emerging-market practice. Again, we would recommend a five (or seven)-year term.

Regardless of which of our proposed structures is adopted, we want to emphasise that it is important that the RBI have both the responsibility and accountability for monetary policy. It should also be, and seen to be, independent of the government of India. Finally, accountability of the RBI would mean twice-a-year presentations (and grilling!) by parliamentarians, not unlike the practice in the US. The latter, of course, cannot happen if Parliament is not allowed to function

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Remembering APJ Abdul Kalam, the problem-solver

My association with A.P.J. Abdul Kalam began in 1967 when I joined the Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station, Thiruvananthapuram. Through the years, he had been my guide and mentor. I learned about the technology behind rockets and project management from him. We worked together for nearly 20 years — first at Thumba and later on the satellite launch vehicle (SLV-3) project.

I owe all my achievements to this great personality. Kalam was a real taskmaster and used to set impossible targets. At the same time, he used to be our motivator and facilitator(who makes easier,सरल बनाने वाला). He used to check that we were on the right track and if any mistakes occurred, he would help us analyse and resolve the issues. He saw to it that we achieved success in the shortest possible time. Kalam never blamed anyone for a mistake or failure. He used to encourage people to put in their best.

One of his biggest contributions was seeing through the successful progress of the SLV 3 programme in the 1970s. When we got into the SLV programme, we had only been launching small rockets that would go to an altitude of 10 km. Kalam envisioned launching a huge 20-tonne rocket with a spacecraft that would orbit the earth. We had no hope of getting this technology from outside. It was Kalam’s leadership that enabled this to happen. The basic technologies in a rocket system are complex and elements are integrated into future missions. The technology for the rocket, control system, navigation system, etc that were developed during the SLV 3 time have formed the foundation for Isro’s PSLV and GSLV systems.

One of the remarkable things about Kalam was his intuitive(self generated,सहज ज्ञान से) decision-making. He had a knack(skill,कौशल) for spotting trouble well in advance. We encountered many failures in the SLV programme and he always used to say that failure is the stepping stone to success. Today, Isro’s project management system stands out as one of the most purposeful in the world because of his efforts.

After leaving the space programme, he took up the challenge of providing a missile shield for the country. Prithvi, Agni, Akash, etc are his brainchildren. Later on, he worked on weapons systems. When the weapons system was realised, I asked him why we were developing it and he said that only strength can draw the respect of others. He looked at the entire thing as a deterrent(prevention,निवारक).

I will not classify Kalam as a pure scientist. He was not the kind of person to write a thesis or solve equations and things like that. But he knew the critical issues in development programmes, whom to tap — a senior scientist, technician or professor. He had high respect for the professors and teaching staff at our leading science institutions and always used to tap their wisdom. He was able to synthesise the knowledge of hundreds of people to solve a single problem. There is practically no other person who has successfully completed so many missions in such a short time.

When we were thinking of the moon mission and had completed the design of the moon probe, we made a presentation to him at Rashtrapati Bhavan. Kalam asked what we were going to do about putting an Indian flag on the moon. That is how we conceived the Moon Impact Probe, which put the Indian flag on the moon on November 14, 2008.

He always said success was something to be celebrated, but he also believed that failure was something that you must concentrate all your energies on resolving. When the first PSLV launch failed, he was scientific advisor to the government. He took a flight to Sriharikota and spent a whole day and night with me to help us overcome the setback and chalk out a recovery plan. He believed that failure was a teacher. This was the kind of philosophical approach he brought to problem-solving. He had the knack of putting his finger on the issue and pointing you in the right direction. There were numerous(many,बहुत से) occasions when we were groping(unsure,असहज) in the dark and a few innocent questions from him would get us thinking and steer(guide,दिखाना) us in the right direction.

Kalam was also a great humanitarian. He was always thinking of the welfare of the people. His aim was to see that the entire country benefited from his presidency. He wanted facilities that existed in cities taken to rural areas. Providing urban infrastructure in rural areas was a project close to his heart.

Kalam always believed that for achieving the development goals of the country, the youth must be empowered. This is why he was always interacting with the youth and schoolchildren. It is a strange coincidence that he breathed his last talking to a group of young people in Shillong.

In the early days, after we mastered composites technology for our rockets, he used the knowhow to devise lightweight supports for polio-affected children. The Kalam stent was another contribution he made. He wanted materials and technology used in the space programme to be adapted for solving the problems of ordinary people. As DRDO chief, he contributed to the healthcare system. He wanted technology to be put to use, not confined to laboratories or universities.

Kalam’s system concepts and system integration capabilities were put to use in the nuclear programme as well as when he was scientific advisor and was involved with the nuclear tests at Pokhran in 1998. Technology was flown in from various laboratories, the ordnance factories and so on. He was the synthesiser of all these technologies. He provided leadership to the programme.

Kalam never carried the baggage of one responsibility to another. As president, he left his days as scientific advisor and scientist behind and focused on the wellbeing of the people of India. After his term as president was over, he concentrated on sparking the minds of children and the youth.

Whenever I faced some trouble, one of the persons I would turn to for support was Kalam. We used to call each other quite often. I would get calls from him even in the middle of the night. Discussions with him were fulfilling. He was a great friend, philosopher and guide to me.

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Another Kind Of Welfare

In ‘A state only in name’ (The Indian Express, July 13), Rakshita Swamy prima facie(clearly,प्रत्यक्ष) dismisses cash transfers as undesirable, and lists out problems without defining what kind of cash transfers she is referring to. This is a position that is difficult to sustain because transfers such as pensions and scholarships have long been part of our welfare system.

There are two types of cash transfers: conditional (CCT) and unconditional (UCT). CCTs require a demonstration of tangible(touchable,वास्तविक) behavioural outcome for the cash transfer to be made. UCTs are not linked to behavioural outcomes. Some criteria may be applied to select the target group. One radical form of the latter, unconditional basic income (UBI), now being discussed widely, is, in fact, universal. There are several pilot projects on UBI across the world, and one such was done in India recently by Sewa. The results of this pilot study have been quite positive.

The term that has been in the news recently is “direct benefit transfer” (DBT). This is meant to make the transfer of some welfare benefits transparent and more efficient. DBT has been successful in the case of LPG subsidy and, in one year, the government has been able to save as much as Rs 12,000 crore.

While DBT is aimed at improving the efficiency of the management of subsidies, UCT or UBI is an alternative way of thinking about welfare assistance itself. It is an attempt as much to improve delivery as it is to address inclusion and exclusion errors that plague(bother,परेशान) the current targeted social assistance.

Swamy takes none of these nuances(a subtle difference in meaning,सुक्ष्मभेद) into account and asserts that “Cash transfers are now being positioned as a magic solution to achieve development goals in health, education, nutrition and food security...” What type of cash transfers is she referring to? And who is positioning it as a magic solution? Which of the pilot studies say so?

Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian has said DBT is a “gamechanger”. As far as subsidy management is concerned, this is indeed true. Saving nearly $2 billion  without hurting any of the stakeholders certainly qualifies for a gamechanger. Further, Swamy says “...the chief economic advisor went as far as saying that cash transfers could be a means of enhancing the legitimacy of the state. The irony(satire,विडम्बना) is only too obvious.” I don’t see what is ironic about Subramanian aspiring to find mechanisms that legitimise the state. We all want our government to spend our tax money more efficiently, don’t we?

When the national average of pilferage(steal small amount,चोरी करना) in the PDS system is 48 per cent, is it not something we should all worry about? When the government officially proclaims that India spends Rs 3.65 to deliver welfare subsidy worth Re 1, should we not feel ashamed and search for alternative methods of delivery? Instead, Swamy brushes aside the issue of pilferage and leakage, and vaguely(unclear,अस्पष्ठ) says that there are several “other reasons”, again unsubstantiated, which are responsible for the welfare programmes not reaching the people.

The writer goes on to say that getting money into the bank is not the same as getting money into people’s hands. This is hardly profound. Any cash transfer indeed requires a robust(strong,सुदृढ़) banking infrastructure and complete financial inclusion. Swamy concludes by making yet another sweeping statement: that the motive behind the push for cash transfers is basically a conspiracy(unlawful act,षड़यँत्र) to privatise. There is little that one can learn from such unexamined statements.

If subsidy is what is in question, DBT is indeed an efficient method that tackles pilferage and black-marketeering. Coming to UCTs, the pilot studies have clearly shown that they can play a very important role in addressing poverty; that they stimulate the local economy; that they can bring about a certain dynamism(energy,जोश) into the lives of the poor; that they have a multiplier effect on the household economy. UCTs need not replace the existing welfare system altogether. It can be an important part of the welfare basket. What we really need now is an informed debate on these issues rather than knee-jerk(natural,स्वाभाविक) reactions and unformulated ideological positions that get us nowhere.

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The Kalam I knew

‘Simple living and high thinking’ exemplifies the life of Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam more than of any other leader I have come to know in my more than five decades of public life. I got to know Dr. Kalam in 1992 when we used to sit in the official gallery of Parliament — he as Scientific Adviser of Secretary rank and I as Secretary in the Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs. I had a reserved seat, as I had to frequently go to the gallery to take note of the proceedings. One day, I saw Dr. Kalam in my seat, and someone pointed out to him that it was my seat. He immediately started to move to the next seat without any fuss(hassle,चिंतित) and it was with great difficulty that I persuaded(agree,मनाना) him to remain where he was. We became friends since then; he frequented the gallery as much as I did, to send information to the Prime Minister and Defence Minister concerning his subjects.

Years later, in 2000, when I was Governor of Odisha, I was invited by the Madurai Kamaraj University to deliver the convocation address. I jumped at the opportunity when they told me that Dr. Kalam was going to be conferred an Honorary Doctorate at the convocation. The two of us got a good opportunity to discuss many things, including the points I made in my address. He did not, however, accept my suggestion that he speak on the occasion. He said it was my day.

Distinguished guest

A few weeks before he became President, Dr. Kalam visited Bhubaneswar to deliver a lecture. The organisers asked if I would host him in Raj Bhavan, as there were security issues in putting him up elsewhere. I readily agreed. But Dr. Kalam insisted on staying in the simple home of the organisers rather than at Raj Bhavan. He felt that the people who wanted to meet him may not have access to him in Raj Bhavan. Later, when he found out that I had looked forward to hosting him, he insisted on personally calling on me to explain why he had not accepted my hospitality. It was again a great meeting during which we discussed several topics, particularly about the potential of the youth to shape the future of this country. After 45 minutes, I walked him to his car to see him off, little realising that he would soon be my boss.

I have pleasant memories of Dr. Kalam’s frequent visits to Wheeler Island in Odisha, when he was in charge of missile launches. He would often fondly recall the times he sat in his room listening to the chirping of birds. This, he said, gave him inspiration for the hard work that lay ahead. In one of his first visits to Odisha as President, he wanted me to organise a meeting with students without the teachers. He spent an hour interacting with them on various topics, particularly science, asking them questions and explaining concepts in great detail. He also encouraged the students to ask him questions and patiently answered them, much to their delight. He saw every student as a valuable potential resource for the development of the country, his primary goal. He wanted a developed India by 2020.

As Chancellor of Universities in Odisha, I had invited him to deliver convocation addresses in three universities, and he willingly accepted. In convocations, the practice is to seat important guests in the front rows and the graduating students behind them. After the convocation, Dr. Kalam went straight to the students, barely stopping to greet the other invitees. He also requested that in future students be seated in front, with important invitees at the side. After that, we meticulously(carefully,सतर्कता) followed this arrangement. The last convocation he participated in was at Sambalpur University, where his idea to start a herbal garden in each university — to make young students aware of the rich wealth of herbs in India — had been implemented. I invited him personally, but he had pressing commitments. Not wanting to miss an opportunity, I scanned the appointment diary he showed me and found a date that was mutually acceptable. When he came, he was delighted with the herbal garden.

Another time, at a banquet held in his honour in Raj Bhavan, he relished(enjoy,पसंद) a brinjal and curd preparation, saying it was his favourite dish. The Odisha Chief Minister told him that my wife painted Saura tribal art. He immediately said he wanted to see them, went to the lounge where they were displayed, and appreciated each painting keenly. The next morning, he mentioned one particular piece that he had liked very much and my wife promptly volunteered to paint a similar one for him. She later gifted it to him during one of our visits to Rashtrapati Bhavan, on the condition that he would treat it as a personal gift that he would take with him when he left.

A hospitable President

Though a strict vegetarian by choice, Dr. Kalam never imposed his preference on his guests. He threw a banquet in Rashtrapati Bhavan for the Governors attending the Governors’ Conference, and took care to see that the best meat dishes were served. I found out later from his personal staff that each item in the menu had been personally chosen by him. That was the kind of generous hospitality that he extended.

The two and a half years that we worked together, when he was President and I was Governor, were excellent. There are many things I have learnt from him. He was never overbearing, always listened to anyone who had a good idea, and was absolutely dedicated to achieving the goal of a developed and prosperous India. For this, he was willing to work for long hours, often past midnight, after which he would take a walk in the Mughal Gardens. This placed his security staff under great strain, but they would gladly accompany him, knowing how much their boss loved them.

Indeed, India was fortunate to have had as its President a role model of the highest integrity, diligence(hard work,कर्मठता) and devotion to duty. May his tribe increase.

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An impact that will endure

Abdul Kalam’s passing has seen a national outpour of grief. This emotional unity in a diverse India is rare in peacetime. No other public figure endeared himself to all sections of society and influenced the minds of millions as Kalam did in the past three decades. The sense of loss Indians feel at Kalam’s death is palpable(touchable,स्पर्षग्रह) and transcends(surpass,आगे बढ़ना) the traditional divisions of caste, region, religion, language or political affiliation.

Kalam achieved outstanding success from humble beginnings. The story of his remarkable life is known to every Indian schoolchild. Given our societal attitudes and lack of access to quality education, it is extremely difficult for Indian children not born to privilege to fulfil their potential and make a mark in life. Millions in India saw in Kalam the hope of fulfilling aspirations and achieving eminence(high status,उत्कृष्टता) in their chosen field. He kept urging(motivated,प्रेरित) young Indians to break out of the shackles(restriction,बंधन) of poverty and tradition, to dream big, and to work hard to fulfil their aspirations. And he always linked individual aspirations with national greatness. It is this consistent articulation(mention,व्याख़्या) of individual growth with public good that has left an enduring impact on most Indians, particularly students and youth.

Kalam had many endearing qualities. His utter simplicity and shunning(avoidance,कन्नी काटना) of pomp(show off,दिखावा) and privilege touched the hearts of millions in a society used to arrogance of power. It is customary in India for those in office to display their trappings of power, distance themselves from the people, abuse public office for private gain, live ostentatiously(showily,दिखावटी), have airs of superiority and foster(promote,बढ़ावा) a VIP culture. Kalam was refreshingly different, and in recent decades was exceptional in his humility, simple life, common touch and speaking straight from the heart.

Indians have developed a great distaste(dislike,अरुचि) for traditional politics and partisan bickering(quarrel about small thing,कहासुनी). Kalam was a symbol of non-partisanship. He was remarkably devoid(free,रहित) of malice(unease,बेचैनी) and pettiness(narrowness,संकीर्णता). Those who knew him well won't be able to recall a single comment of bitterness or prejudice in his private or public utterances(vocalization,कथन). He transcended caste, religion, region and language, and represented the best in our society.

Tireless energy

Throughout his long and distinguished life, Kalam retained a child-like curiosity and enthusiasm. His infinite capacity to absorb new ideas and learn, and readiness to spread sensible ideas and successful models made him a great communicator and teacher. Young or old, men or women, all audiences could easily relate to his simple, straight message. By his own estimate, he directly interacted with over 20 million people, mostly students and youth, over the past two decades. The fact that he collapsed and died as he was interacting with students in Shillong at the age of 83 demonstrates his tireless energy and his identification with all languages and regions of India. This poor Muslim boy from coastal Tamil Nadu became a true symbol of the diverse, multilingual, multi-religious India of many layers and many diverse strands.

Perhaps Kalam’s most impressive quality was his robust(strong,मजबूत), undying optimism. He had great faith in the power of technology, and passionately believed India could achieve greatness if we harnessed(control,in use,काम में लाना) our opportunities and pursued a path of common sense. His broader priorities and prescriptions for economic growth and national greatness are practical and attainable. He relentlessly(continue,लगातार) focused on agriculture, food processing and urban amenities in rural areas; infrastructure, in particular, reliable and quality electricity accessible to all; quality education and healthcare for all to give real opportunity to every family; information and communication technologies; and critical technologies and strategic industries related to defence, space and nuclear sectors.

He was not a prophet of doom. He was an eternal optimist and problem-solver, who always saw possibilities and opportunities for the nation. His vision of India emerging as a developed economy within a generation and occupying her rightful place among global giants(large,big,बड़ा) captivated the nation and electrified the imagination of youth. His vision of national greatness was rooted in improving the living conditions of all Indians. Again, he always sought to establish the link between prosperity and a better life for all Indians and national greatness. It is these personal qualities and his simple, direct message relevant to our age that made him the icon of the younger generation and the much-beloved elder statesman that he was. That is why he became the authentic symbol of a resurgent, aspirational India. And that is why he wielded(maintain,चलाना) influence way beyond the offices he held. In recent decades, he stands tallest in terms of the real influence and impact he had on the minds of tens of millions of people.

It would be no exaggeration(overstated,अतिशयोक्ति) to say that in his own quiet, simple way, Kalam in recent decades emerged as a great nation-builder. He defined new nationalism for an emerging India. Our sense of nationhood was fashioned by Mahatma Gandhi and our freedom fighters during the national movement. It was largely based on opposition to colonial exploitation, the rejection of racial prejudice of an alien ruler, rediscovery of our past glories and civilisational strengths to shore up our self-esteem, and the deification of Mother India to build unity and patriotic fervour(energy,जोश).

Gandhiji, more than any other Indian, built a nation out of disparate, diverse groups, castes, religions, languages and regions. His feat was unique and unrivalled in the annals of world history because there has never been a nation as complex and diverse, and living in as many different layers — spanning from the 17th century to the 21st century — as India. In the past three decades, Kalam helped redefine this sense of nationalism to suit current needs. In this day and age, nationalism has to be based on unity transcending diversity, the fulfilment of aspirations, giving opportunities for growth and prosperity to every child irrespective of birth, the liberty of all citizens irrespective of caste, gender or religion, and respect for universal human values and rights.

Lasting legacy

Kalam’s most enduring and important legacy will be the fostering of this sense of new nationalism and the robust optimism in India’s quest to fulfil such a vision. Undoubtedly there is a vast gulf between Kalam’s and India’s collective vision and dreams, and the rickety, quarrelsome, inefficient, often corrupt political culture and governance institutions. We need to do a lot, and quickly, to bridge this chasm and make this dream of national greatness and opportunities for all a reality within two decades. Our moribund(not growing,मृत), partisan, corrupt political process driven by mindless lust(desire,इच्छा) for power without purpose needs to be transformed. Politics must once again become a noble endeavour with a purpose, as Mahatma Gandhi envisaged(imagine,सोचा).

Our bureaucracy must be imbued(fill,व्याप्त) with a sense of purpose, and must become an instrument for delivering services and achieving goals for the public good. We need to give back power with accountability to communities, organisations and institutions at every level so that the best impulses prevail, talents are harnessed, and leadership in every sphere is nurtured. As a people, we must rediscover the capacity to pay a short-term price to promote the prosperity of the next generation and enhance long-term public good. And we need to remind ourselves that the nation is above self, and above accidents of the womb and the many sectarian divisions that continue to plague(bother,परेशान) us.

Gandhiji gave us a sense of nationhood. Kalam endeavoured(effort,प्रयास) to inject optimism and show us a practical roadmap. We can, and will, fulfil our national destiny and give opportunity to every child and wipe every tear from every eye, as Mahatma Gandhi had hoped and Kalam dreamt.

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Interpretive remedies in NJAC case

After 31 days of argument, a five-judge bench of the Supreme Court has reserved judgment in what will rank amongst the most significant constitutional cases before the Court in recent years. Since the Supreme Court’s decision in the ‘Second Judges Case’ in 1993, appointments to the Court have been made through what has come to be known as the ‘collegium’ system, in which the three most senior judges of the Court play a decisive(crucial,निर्णायक) role in the appointments process. The collegium system faced increasing criticism, and Parliament attempted to replace it with an appointments process led by a National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) through a constitutional amendment, and a statute that gives effect to the amendment.

Chintan Chandrachud

The amendment provides that the NJAC will consist of six people — the Chief Justice of India, the two most senior judges of the Supreme Court, the Law Minister, and two ‘eminent(prominent,उत्कृष्ट) persons’. These eminent persons are to be nominated for a three-year term by a committee consisting of the Chief Justice, the Prime Minister, and the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, and are not eligible for renomination. The Supreme Court is now tasked with deciding the constitutionality of the amendment and the statute.
This piece will not consider the relative merits of the collegium system and the NJAC. Although that is a most significant matter, it has been debated extensively. Instead, the remedies available to the Supreme Court — a different and less studied aspect of the case — will be explored.

As with the NJAC case, on most occasions when the law is challenged on the basis that it is unconstitutional, the challenge is conceived of in terms of a binary, whether to strike down or not strike down the law.

Matrix of remedies

However, the matrix of remedies available to the court is far more complex than this. The Supreme Court has, on several occasions, described striking down as a ‘grave step’ and a ‘measure of last resort’. Therefore, the most common response to a finding of unconstitutionality is not to strike down the unconstitutional law, but to interpret it in a way that is consistent with constitutional requirements.

In the NJAC case, the Supreme Court has several intermediate options falling short of the strike-down power. This piece will consider four interpretive possibilities, which can be distinguished based on whether they address the composition or the functioning of the NJAC.

Composition of the NJAC

Defining ‘eminent persons’ more narrowly: Amongst the arguments that the petitioners have made is that the constitutional amendment makes no attempt to define who the two eminent persons on the NJAC will be. This, it is argued, can give rise to concerns about the nomination of people with favourable political leanings or people who clearly lack the credentials to judge the performance of candidates. The Supreme Court could seek to remove these concerns by specifying a set of criteria — or qualifications — that the eminent persons would need to hold. These criteria could include a degree in law or allied disciplines, a minimum number of years of practice before the Supreme Court, or a designation of seniority by the Supreme Court or High Courts. Conversely, the Court could prescribe a set of disqualifications — for instance, that those who are charged with serious criminal offences will not be considered ‘eminent’.

Modifying the ‘eminent persons’ appointments process: The constitutional amendment provides that the eminent persons on the NJAC are to be appointed by a Committee consisting of the Chief Justice, the Prime Minister, and the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha. The argument here is that the politicians could collude(conspiracy,साठ गाँठ) to nominate a person who, in the opinion of the Chief Justice, lacks the credentials to be part of the NJAC. The Supreme Court may seek to avoid this situation by interpreting the provisions to the effect that the Chief Justice has a veto power in the appointment of eminent persons. This would mean that the Chief Justice would always need to be in the majority, and a 2-1 decision, with a dissenting(disagree,असहमति) note from the Chief Justice, would not result in an appointment.

Functioning of the NJAC

An exclusive veto power for the judges: Neither the constitutional amendment nor the statute giving effect to the amendment make it clear how the six-member NJAC is expected to take its decisions. Presumable(by reasonable assumption,सम्भवतः), the ideal scenario is for decisions to be made by consensus(agree,सहमति). But where consensus is not possible, the alternative is likely to be a majority decision-making procedure.

The statute specifies that no person shall be recommended for appointment to the Supreme Court if any two members disagree with the appointment. The argument against this requirement is that both sides — the judges and the non-judges — have a veto power over appointments. Arguably, the Law Minister together with one or more of the eminent persons could exercise their veto against independent-minded candidates.

In order to grant the judges a degree of primacy in the process, the Supreme Court could interpret this provision as applying only to the judges. This would, in other words, mean that assuming that all six members of the NJAC participate and vote, a successful appointment would require the concurrence(agreement,सहमति) of at least two of the three judges on the Commission.

Standard operating procedures for appointments: Once again, neither the constitutional amendment nor the statute specifies the procedures that the NJAC is expected to follow while making decisions on appointments. Instead, important issues such as the level of publicity to be given to reports of the Commission, the quorum for Commission meetings, and whether the rejection of candidates requires reasoned explanation, has been left to the domain of rules and regulations.

The argument that is often made against the NJAC is that it engenders the same kind of opacity(not clearly,अपारदर्शिता) that the collegium is often criticised for. The Supreme Court could seek to address these concerns by prescribing a set of standard operating procedures that the NJAC would need to follow in order to comply(obey,पालन करना) with constitutional requirements. The procedures could, for example, include the requirement that those candidates who are considered (but not appointed) be provided with a full set of reasons for their non-appointment.

In prescribing these procedures, the Supreme Court would have to balance the competing considerations of ensuring an open and transparent system of appointments on the one hand, and protecting the integrity and standing of candidates on the other.

Middle path

There are many reasons for which the middle road - interpretation consistent with constitutional requirements — seems intuitively appealing in this case. It would probably enable all sides to claim victory. The government could claim that its amendment secured the Court’s stamp of endorsement, the petitioners could claim that they succeeded in having important safeguards infused into the appointments process, and the Court could send the message that it has effectively protected constitutional rights without thwarting(prevent,block,विरोध) the democratic will.

A legislative sequel or push-back from Parliament would be much less likely in the event of an interpretive solution than if the constitutional amendment were struck down. After all, if the amendment is struck down, it is possible that the Court’s judgment will indicate the sort of Commission that would have passed constitutional muster(bring together,इकट्ठा), giving Parliament the opportunity to make a second attempt at amending the Constitution with greater information at its disposal.

Nevertheless, the Court should be conscious of the risks associated with radically modifying the effect of the constitutional amendment. Radical interpretive exercises tread(crush,कुचलना) the thin line between judicial interpretation and legislative amendment. A fairly recent attempt at modifying the effect of a law (in which the provisions for appointment of Information Commissioners under the Right to Information Act 2005 were recast) came under severe criticism, following which the Supreme Court stepped back from its judgment in a review petition.

Most importantly, some of the interpretive possibilities articulated(joint,जुड़ा होना) here may produce an appointments process that closely resembles the existing collegium system. Thus, the NJAC could become the collegium in disguise — in which case, the Supreme Court would have successfully struck down the amendment without being transparent about doing so.

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Benchmarks for banks

Public sector banks (PSBs) have been critically evaluated in the last few months because of stressed assets including rising non-performing assets (NPAs). There is a need to critically review the performance of PSBs and the factors that are responsible for such high stressed assets, especially when tax payers have to provide resources for recapitalisation.

The sectoral analysis based on latest available data for December 2014 from the Reserve Bank of India reveals that industry continued to record high stressed assets at 17.9 per cent of advances followed by services at 7.5 per cent. The retail sector, in which private banks (PRBs) have a dominant share, recorded the lowest stressed assets at 2 per cent.

The sub-sectoral analysis reveals that mining, textiles, iron and steel, infrastructure and aviation are the major contributors to stressed assets, followed by food processing, engineering, vehicles, wood, paper, glass and glassware, and construction. Thus, the economic slowdown is clearly transmitting through waves and ripples across different sectors of the economy.

If carefully analysed, PSBs account for a substantially large share of stressed assets in mining, iron and steel, textiles, infrastructure and aviation as compared to PRBs because of substantially larger exposure to these sub sectors. Illustratively, PSBs account for 17.6 per cent of advances to infrastructure as compared to 8.4 per cent of the PRBs, while stressed assets were 30.9 per cent compared to 18.2 per cent, respectively. Similar are the results when comparison is extended to other stressed sectors. Thus, when granularly analysed, relatively, the performance of PSBs is not inferior(bad,निम्न) to that of PRBs. Also, the sub sectors referred to previously generally require a large amount of resources, which only PSBs have the wherewithal(resources,साधन) to provide.

In general, the areas of major stressed assets are precisely those where policy paralysis and episodes of stalled(postpone,रुके हुए) projects were most dominant, namely mining and infrastructure. The airlines industry, globally, is very quickly impacted by the slowdown, and in addition, specifically in India, the demise(end,अंत) of a prominent domestic luxury airline was understandably a major factor for the stressed assets in aviation.

The sluggish demand in slowing Western economies and deteriorating(make worse,विकृति) competitiveness against China and Bangladesh has led to restructuring of loans by the textile industry. The dumping of steel in India by China is now clearly emerging as an issue and the survival of domestic manufacturers with implications for employment is the most critical factor for continuation of financing of the steel industry. Most importantly, it deserves recognition that PSBs responsibly supported and significantly partnered with the government in containing the impact of the global meltdown since 2008.

Time for introspection

Though India has weathered(face,सामना) a significantly higher ratio of stressed assets during the initial period of reforms in 1993-94 and a similar ratio of about 13 per cent in 2001, the current critical situation should be used for introspection and undertaking structurally corrective measures. In addition to the issues raised in the Nayak Committee Report (RBI, 2015) such as tenure(period,काल) of the chairman, bank boards and an overarching(very important,अतिमहत्वपूर्ण) banking investment company, there is the need to ensure that top positions of PSBs are not left vacant for prolonged periods. In fact, a waiting list should be readily maintained, and an overlap period for an understudy for a month should be provided to the incoming official to ensure continuity. Further, following the Gopalakrishna Committee Report (RBI, 2014), nearly 8 lakh serving officials in PSBs, filtered through a rigorous(strict,सख्त) procedure, should be skilled through high-quality training to ensure enhanced efficiency in operations. This would be more useful than recruiting a few management graduates from elite(specific,विशिष्ट वर्ग) institutions at high salaries every year, like a drop in an ocean, to transform the working environment in PSBs.

The government’s proposal to try senior officials from PRBs to chair PSBs can be expected to yield(give,देना) positive results and should be experimented in a few banks initially before scaling up to many more. Interestingly, efficient and experienced officials from PSBs are regularly poached by PRBs.

To ensure that every employee is made aware of the responsibility of their collective action, regular wage-hike fixation and incentives should not be industry-wide but only restricted to the performance of the respective banks. Finally, the proposed capitalisation of PSBs should not be offered as a matter of routine but made conditional on strict performance criteria and a specific roadmap for recovery, placed in public domain to ensure accountability.

Since the first nationalisation of State Bank of India in 1955, followed by more in 1969 and 1980, PSBs were created to pursue social objectives and focus on banking the unbanked. Consequently(therefore,परिणामस्वरुप), PSBs have been at the forefront in rural areas and have been relentlessly(continue,लगातार) pursuing implementation of government welfare schemes o in terms of priority sector lending, and pension and insurance, including those recently announced.

PSBs, admirably, despite pursuing social objectives, are competing well on various financial parameters with PRBs. But the authorities need to consider that in the absence of a level playing field, should PSBs and PRBs be evaluated on similar norms? Illustratively, to be fair to the PSBs, the owner and regulator should take cognisance(awareness,जागरूकता) of the fact that in opening 16.5 crore Jan Dhan accounts within six months, without seeking additional man-power, these PSBs would have deployed all their resources at the cost of other activities. In contrast, PRBs only opened 68 lakh Jan Dhan accounts.

Therefore, the norms and benchmark for these unique financial creatures typical to India have to be designed, especially for PSBs, and comparison and contrasts of performance evaluated among themselves. The incomplete growth and welfare-based agenda of the new government, especially the Make in India campaign, will again need active support of geographically widespread PSBs. Therefore, comparison of socially oriented PSBs with profit-oriented, citycentric PRBs needs to be revisited. Further, given the acceptability of transparency in operations, globally, should India not offer an alternative set of benchmarks for its time-tested and faithful PSBs? After all, the world does accept different standards, and the non-implementation of the Basel banking norms by the U.S. has not impacted financial markets, either.

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All form, little substance

In two recent speeches, the Foreign Secretary, Dr. S. Jaishankar, has enunciated(express clearly,स्पष्ठ कहना) the strategic underpinnings(base,आधार) of India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The speeches are characteristically incisive(effective,प्रभावशाली), thoughtful and provide useful insights into New Delhi’s evolving approach to international relations. Nevertheless, since these speeches were public interventions, a few thoughts may be worth bouncing off their polished surface.

Srinath Raghavan

The burden of the speeches was to flag apparently far-reaching shifts in India’s approach to foreign affairs. Even while the Foreign Secretary conceded(admit,मानना) some continuity with the past, he insisted that we are witnessing “different times”. A simple “smell test” of the diplomacy of the last year would point to this “reasonably clear conclusion”. Foreign policy under Mr. Modi is marked by “greater confidence, more initiative, certainly stronger determination” as well as a series of innovative approaches.

Engaging with the neighbourhood

The Foreign Secretary rightly held that Mr. Modi’s decision to invite South Asian leaders for his swearing-in, in May 2014, heralded(announce,घोषणा) a “big shift” in India’s policy towards its neighbours. By engaging intensively with the neighbourhood, Mr. Modi has indeed managed to project India’s leadership without ruffling(trouble,परेशानी) sensitivities in the region. In particular, his engagements with Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan have given a fillip to plans for subregional connectivity and integration.

That said, our relationships with the Western neighbours leave much to be desired. It is not surprising that the Foreign Secretary slurred(speak illogical,बेतुके बयांन) over Pakistan in his speeches. Here, the government has struggled to reap dividends of the “big shift” — largely because it shifted away from its original position. By calling off talks last year and by taking the initiative to resume them now, the government has showcased its inability to craft a sustainable approach to Pakistan. The position with Afghanistan is worse still. Repeating platitudes about “Afghan-led reconciliation process” and “internationally accepted red-lines” is unlikely to get us very far. In reality, there is an ongoing Pakistan-facilitated process to arrive at a settlement with the Taliban. More importantly, this process has the approval of the United States, China and Russia. The limitations of our policy towards Afghanistan over the past year are amply(fully,बिलकुल) clear — not least in the manner in which traditional partners like Russia have edged closer to the Pakistani position.

Looking beyond the subcontinent, the Foreign Secretary underlined the government’s pattern of engagement with various other regions. The Prime Minister’s “integrated” tours to countries in East Asia, the Indian Ocean and Central Asia are evidently indicative of a different approach — one that also seeks to exploit the openings that may be offered by local balances of power. The prime ministerial itineraries(travel plan,यात्रा विवरण) certainly lend credence(acceptance,विश्वसनीयता) to this claim. And the outreach to some neglected countries is to be welcomed.

But is there a novel strategic approach at work? Take the case of the Indian Ocean region. The Foreign Secretary stated that there is a new, integrated approach in place — with emphasis on “exchange of information and coastal surveillance, building of infrastructure and strengthening of capabilities”.

Assessing policy

In fact, each of these initiatives began under the previous government. For instance, the maritime domain awareness systems inaugurated during Mr. Modi’s visit to Seychelles, in March 2015, were the outcome of an older initiative encompassing several Indian Ocean countries. As for beefing up our maritime capabilities, it may be worth pointing out that this year’s Budget actually cut the Indian Navy’s share of defence allocation to 13.5 per cent from 16 per cent in the last year. Perhaps the real problem of integration lies within the Government of India.

Beyond such quibbles(problem,कमी), there is the larger question of how to assess our foreign policy. A “smell test” can hardly suffice(enough,काफी). The real test of a foreign policy is coherence(orderly,सुसंगत) of design, consistency in execution, and efficacy in outcomes. The last in particular is the litmus test.

Compare the outcomes secured by this government with those of the National Democratic Alliance government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the first United Progressive Alliance government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Over a similar period in office, Mr. Vajpayee tested nuclear weapons, travelled to Lahore, repelled Pakistani aggression in Kargil, and opened new avenues in our relationship with the U.S. and China. In the same time frame, Dr. Singh concluded the agreement on parameters to settle the boundary with China, announced the nuclear deal with the U.S., and made headway with Pakistan in backchannel talks. By this standard, the present government’s foreign policy looks ordinary. To be sure, the government has a long way to go and there is no reason to judge it by the performance so far. Still, the government might wish to refrain from talking up its own policies.

Bonhomie and the results

Talking up, however, seems to be an integral part of its conception of foreign policy. Indeed, this was a running theme through the various innovations pointed out by the Foreign Secretary. “Personal chemistry” has apparently emerged as a “powerful tool in our diplomatic kit”. There is a measure of truth to this. The Prime Minister does seem to have a personal affinity for leaders such as the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. In other cases, as with the American and Chinese leaders, there was more of orchestrated(plan,योजना) bonhomie(friendly,मिलनसारिता). In any event, the role of personalities in diplomacy can hardly be denied.

Yet, as the British diplomat Harold Nicolson observed, diplomacy is ultimately “disagreeable business”. The mere fact of leaders getting along well can hardly ensure convergence in policies and actions. The Foreign Secretary’s claim that Mr. Modi’s visit to China, in May 2015, resulted in the “world’s most powerful selfie” — when Mr. Modi posed with China’s Premier Li Keqiang — may be true; but it can scarcely(hardly,मुश्किल) disguise the fact that the Chinese refused to accede to Indian wishes on such key issues as clarification of the Line of Actual Control or increased market access. The number of followers on Twitter or Facebook is no measure of real power or influence. There is a danger here of getting trapped in a social-media echo chamber of tweets and posts, “likes” and “favourites”.

Creating narratives

This is equally true of the government’s emphasis on creating narratives about India and coining neologisms. The Foreign Secretary was perceptive in highlighting the role of strategic narratives. The importance of moulding opinions held by a variety of constituencies and actors is undeniable in contemporary international politics. Narratives differ from ordinary stories in that they deal with the way in which issues are framed and responses suggested.

A successful narrative will enable the consumer to distinguish between important and trivial(small,तुच्छ) issues, good and bad news. It will suggest ways of piecing together seemingly disparate developments while disentangling(solve,सुलझाना) others. The fundamental requirements of any strategic narrative are appropriateness and credibility. The government seems a bit oblivious(unaware,बेखबर) to both. The notion that highlighting India’s role in the First World War buttresses its demand for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council falls short on the first criterion. Making large claims for a “Neighbourhood First” policy while eliding(leave,छोड़ना) the missteps on Pakistan or Afghanistan fails the second criterion. Moreover, communication is currently too focussed on personality and style as opposed to ideas and outcomes.

The Foreign Secretary has coined his own neologism in these speeches: India as a “leading power”. Hitherto(so far,अब तक), he argued, India had remained content to be a “balancing power”. It is perhaps time to take the lead on global issues and demonstrate our willingness to shoulder global responsibilities. This seems unexceptionable, though his suggestion that in the past India had been “neutral or risk averse” is a gross misreading of our diplomatic history.

So far, the real constraint on such ambitions has been weak state capacity. This affects both our ability to grasp the big strategic picture and our ability to get the nuts and bolts right. On the former, we only need to look closely into the Ministry of External Affairs’ flawed assessment of the prospects of a nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States. Equally striking is the absence of any coherent response by the government to the major changes sweeping the global economic landscape: the mega-regional trade deals driven by the U.S. and the ‘One-Belt One-Road’ envisioned by China. On the latter, think only of our inability to deliver on any number of regional promises of cooperation and connectivity. Instead of focussing on flaky “soft power” initiatives such as Yoga or Buddhism, the government should aim to get its institutional muscle into shape. Otherwise, our partners may come to see us not as a “leading” power but as a misleading power.

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Talks with Taliban: more hype than hope

Can negotiating with the Taliban result in peace and stability in Afghanistan? Eventually perhaps, but not under the current circumstances. Not while its government is hobbled(unstable,अस्थिर) by economic meltdown, is short on international assistance, and its security forces are struggling, at great sacrifice, to hold their ground against a resurgent Taliban.

Jayant Prasad

Afghanistan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani thinks he can achieve, through persuasion(opinion,धारणा), what the United States failed to get by coercion(forced,दबाव). He applauded the first, direct meeting at Murree, Pakistan, on July 7, between a Taliban delegation and representatives of Afghanistan’s government and High Peace Council (HPC) as “the biggest achievement of Afghanistan over the past 14 years.” A follow-up meeting is days away.

At Murree, as at the preceding track-two meetings in earlier weeks in Doha, Dubai, Oslo and Urumqi (China), the Taliban committed to safeguard the “lives, honour and properties” of Afghans. This was flouted within hours of Mr. Ghani’s statement, as the Taliban attacked civilians in Khost, Kapisa and Baghlan, including a congregation(meeting,सभा) gathered for iftar, killing scores of persons.

Deconstructing the Murree meeting

The format of the Murree talks was 2 (Taliban and HPC) + 1 (Pakistan) + 2 (China and the United States), the last two attending as observers. Negotiations with the Taliban are meant to be an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned, inter-Afghan process. Yet, Pakistan is the guarantor and guide of this dialogue. Afghans are keen to hold the next round outside Pakistan, and with the main leaders of the Shura.

When former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, in 2008, offered to talk to Mullah Omar anytime, anywhere, Pakistan denied having access to members of the Quetta Shura. That its horses are kept in Pakistan’s stables was implicitly confirmed the moment Pakistan agreed to facilitate the peace process.

No known senior members of the Shura were present at Murree. A noteworthy inclusion was that of Mullah Yahya, of the Haqqani network, which is known to act as “a veritable arm” of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. The exclusion of Syed Tayyeb Agha, head of the Taliban political office in Qatar, adds to the incertitude(doubt,संदिग्धता) of the peace talks, as he is recognised as the sole figure authorised to negotiate on behalf of the Taliban.

Pakistan’s National Security Advisor, Sartaj Aziz said that the “key Taliban leaders” at the talks represented Akhtar Mansoor, “the acting head of the Taliban”, and that Mansoor had a clear mandate from the “Central Shura”. The Murree process is going to be as much an Afghanistan-Pakistan dialogue, as one between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

Mr. Ghani’s play of the dice has logic, since the Quetta Shura operates under the umbrella of the Pakistan Army. Mr. Karzai had attempted to engage Pakistan exactly the same way. He failed, but not for lack of trying. His later efforts, to contact individual Taliban leaders resulted either in their incarceration(imprisonment,कैद) or elimination. The former Taliban Defence Minister, Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, arrested in Pakistan in 2007, was allegedly tortured and killed in March 2010.

When, in 2010, Mr. Karzai’s emissaries engaged Mullah Biradar, the seniormost Taliban leader after Mullah Omar, he was promptly arrested in Pakistan and put out of commission. In 2013, an HPC delegation, permitted to see Biradar, found him to be so heavily drugged that he could not utter(say,कहना) a single word in the meeting.

Contradictory objectives

And when, in a creative move, the U.S. helped Qatar set up a Taliban office in Doha to give Taliban representatives a measure of independence from Pakistan, the ISI sought to infiltrate and control that office. The recent arrest of Tayyeb Agha’s brothers in Pakistan might have been part of this effort.

Indications of the Taliban’s readiness to sit down to talk have been in the air for a few years. The question is, under what conditions and to what purpose? Some Afghan participants who participated in the recent meetings feel that the Taliban has principally used its international exposure to charm foreign interlocutors, instead of committing to abjuring(surrender,त्याग) violence and joining the democratic process.

While Afghans suffer intimidation and terror at its hands, the Taliban projects itself as a moderate and nationalist force, promising to protect women’s rights and female education, and provide a clean administration. They claim ideological and organisational disassociation with extremist groups like the al-Qaeda and Daesh.

These talks are unlikely to deliver peace and reconciliation(balancing,सामजंस्य) because the objectives of the protagonists(leader,नायक) do not match. Mr. Ghani hopes to make the negotiations a continuing process, and meanwhile build mutual confidence, outline the agenda issues necessary for peace, and eliminate violence. The Taliban wants the exit of foreign forces, power-sharing, constitutional changes establishing the supremacy of the Sharia, and the re-establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, reversing the gains of the Afghan people over the past 14 years. Its immediate objectives are seeking the release of Taliban prisoners, ending targeted sanctions, and a removal of the bounty(generosity,उदारता) lists for information leading to the location and capture of its prominent leaders.

Moreover, not all factions of the Taliban are committed to peace. Large areas have fallen under its de facto control, including in pockets in the north, from Faryab to Badakhshan. No one other than the Pakistan Army knows whether Mullah Omar, not seen for a decade, is dead or alive. Even if the Taliban was to agree to a ceasefire, it will be to bide its time for a more formidable(alarming,विकट) offensive.

The role of the Pakistan Army

Mr. Ghani often says that Pakistan has been in an “undeclared state of hostilities(unfriendly,शत्रुता) with Afghanistan.” For him, Pakistan’s acceptance that the real conflict(battle,विवाद) is between the two States, rather than within Afghanistan, “is the breakthrough.” “The problem, fundamentally, is not about peace with Taliban,” he told a conference co-hosted by the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Atlantic Council in Washington DC in March, “The problem is fundamentally about peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan.”

Facilitation of direct talks with the Taliban is not enough to prove the Pakistan Army’s bona fides. It has failed to provide Afghanistan direct access to key members of the Shura, take action against the Haqqani network, and restrain the Taliban from its 2015 offensive.

Instead, since the launch of ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ — the Pakistan Army’s war against terrorism — just prior to Mr. Ghani’s assumption of office, more Afghan soldiers have died in action than the number of U.S. and International Security Assistance Force soldiers killed in the preceding 13 years. The question in Afghan minds is: has the Pakistan Army really done what it can?

Its past conduct reinforces(strengthen,मजबूत) such doubts. Thrice before, it has had the opportunity to help stabilise Afghanistan: first, in 1992, when the Peshawar-based Seven Party Alliance formed the government; second, when the Taliban took over in 1996; and third, post-2001, when Pakistan’s contribution to Operation Enduring Freedom made it a ‘Major non-NATO ally’.

The Pakistan Army is believed to no longer follow a selective approach to terrorism, and to have strong internal and external reasons for pursuing a new policy. Pakistan has paid a heavy price for its complicity with the Taliban. Moreover, a Taliban government in Kabul might not serve Pakistan’s best interests. The U.S. desire to disengage, and China’s decision to invest in Afghanistan’s stability, to deny a safe haven for Uighur insurgents and pursue its regional interests, serve as incentives for Pakistan to alter its behaviour.

Even so, Pakistan still prevaricates(mislead,झूठ) on ending the distinction between the “good” and “bad” terrorists. The Pakistan Army is a firefighter in Pakistan and indulges(involve,लिप्त होना) in incendiarism(fire raising,उत्प्रेरक) in Afghanistan, dousing the flames within its own territories and fanning them across its borders. It is expelling(leave,निष्कासित) terrorists from Pakistan and installing them in Afghanistan, thereby shifting the epicentre of terrorism away from Pakistan. The Pakistan Army treats the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the enemy of State and the Afghan Taliban as a legitimate force, advocating the extinction of TTP and accommodation of the Taliban.

The course of future talks

The Murree meeting foretells(prediction,भविश्यवाणी) future conversations, even negotiations, which are bound to be long and complex. Attempts to conciliate the Taliban were made even before its resurgence in 2005-06. The High Peace Council was set up in 2010, with former President Burhanuddin Rabbani, as its head. The Taliban assassinated(kill,हत्या करना) him the following year. After many false starts, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban are now settling on the starting blocks. This will be a marathon, not a short race, and will not end so long as the Taliban and Pakistan talk peace and pursue violence.

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Women voters can tip the scales in Bihar

As all political parties pull up their socks before the Bihar elections, they must recognise the power of 46.6 — the fraction of women electors who will go to the polls this autumn to determine the fate of the parties. Women in Bihar have been agents of change in previous elections and have brought in significant political and policy changes in the State. Bihar is the fourth largest State in India in terms of the total number of electors (55 million). It contains 8 per cent of the total number of electors in the country.

We analysed Election Commission data to see if re-election prospects of politicians are affected differently by male and female voters. This is not very easy to do because governments, during their tenure(period,काल), enact many policies which affect men and women differently, making it difficult to establish a clear link between the gender of voters and election outcomes.

Bihar, however, extends a unique opportunity. In the Assembly elections of February 2005, no political party emerged as a winner to form government. As a result, President’s rule was declared in the State, the Assembly was dissolved, and re-elections were held in all the constituencies, eight months later in October. The re-election provided us a chance to study the impact of change in women voters (compared to men voters) on the re-election prospects of political parties. We compared electoral outcomes for all the 243 Assembly constituencies in Bihar for both the elections held within a short span(duration,अवधि) of time when no new State government policies were enacted.

Change in outcome

The results strikingly reveal that the winning party changed in 87 of the 243 constituencies, which is 36 per cent of all Assembly constituencies in Bihar. In these, it was not the winning party of the February election that was re-elected in October, but a new one. As a result of this massive change, one particular party emerged as a clear winner and a new government was formed: the JD(U) government under Nitish Kumar. Our analysis shows that this change in election outcome was fundamentally brought about by the women voters.

We start by making two important observations. First, from February to October, the female poll percentage increased from 42.5 to 44.5 while that of male voters declined from 50 per cent to 47 per cent. Second, the average growth rate in the number of female voters was almost three times more in the constituencies where there was a change in the winning party in comparison to those constituencies where the same political parties were re-elected. In sharp contrast, there was no change in the average growth rate of male voters across the two types of constituencies. We analysed the distribution of the growth rates in numbers of female and male voters between the two elections, and compared the constituencies where the same party was re-elected with the constituencies where political parties were not re-elected and a new winner was declared. We found that the distribution of the growth rate of female voters in these two types of constituencies is very different while the distribution of male voters is similar. The observations put together imply that not only did more women cast their votes in the re-election, but they caused the change in outcomes in these elections on average.

Next, we tested the re-election prospects at the constituency level more rigorously(strictly,सख्ती के साथ). We studied the effect of the growth rate in female and male voters on the probability of re-election for a political party in each Bihar assembly constituency. In our analysis, we accounted for the fact that there will be district-level variations (there are 38 districts). On an average, each district has six to seven Assembly constituencies. Our results strongly indicate that growth rates in female voters had a negative effect on the probability of re-election of a political party, while the rise in the number of male voters had a positive effect on the probability of re-election. So while Bihari women came out in large numbers and voted for political change in the State, the men were satisfied with status quo(current situation,यथापूर्व स्थिति) and voted to retain it in the 2005 elections. This is the reason why we conclude that women were largely the agents of change in 2005 by lending support to Mr. Kumar’s JD(U), while overwhelmingly voting against Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal.

These results from Bihar confirm the fact that men and women can vote very differently. For traditional patriarchal societies, this is a remarkable political evolution when women can break away from the established mores of society and vote independently from their husbands and fathers. There is vast literature in politics which establishes the necessity of universal suffrage(right to vote,मताधिकार) for a healthy representative democracy, and yet, while advocating universal suffrage, James Mill had argued that in order to keep the expenses of a representative system down, women need not have separate voting rights because their interests were included within those of their husbands and fathers. Bihari women have shown that the interests of half the society are not merely significant, but also distinct from the interests of the other half. This is reflected in their voting behaviour. Recent political announcements from Mr. Kumar on liquor prohibition in the State suggest that he acknowledges the support of the ‘vote bank’ that got him into power. And he is readying himself to appease them for an encore(repeated,फिर से). But the worthy question that remains unanswered is what do Bihari women voters want and does Prime Minister Narendra Modi have a clue?

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Women voters can tip the scales in Bihar

As all political parties pull up their socks before the Bihar elections, they must recognise the power of 46.6 — the fraction of women electors who will go to the polls this autumn to determine the fate of the parties. Women in Bihar have been agents of change in previous elections and have brought in significant political and policy changes in the State. Bihar is the fourth largest State in India in terms of the total number of electors (55 million). It contains 8 per cent of the total number of electors in the country.

We analysed Election Commission data to see if re-election prospects of politicians are affected differently by male and female voters. This is not very easy to do because governments, during their tenure(period,काल), enact many policies which affect men and women differently, making it difficult to establish a clear link between the gender of voters and election outcomes.

Bihar, however, extends a unique opportunity. In the Assembly elections of February 2005, no political party emerged as a winner to form government. As a result, President’s rule was declared in the State, the Assembly was dissolved, and re-elections were held in all the constituencies, eight months later in October. The re-election provided us a chance to study the impact of change in women voters (compared to men voters) on the re-election prospects of political parties. We compared electoral outcomes for all the 243 Assembly constituencies in Bihar for both the elections held within a short span(duration,अवधि) of time when no new State government policies were enacted.

Change in outcome

The results strikingly reveal that the winning party changed in 87 of the 243 constituencies, which is 36 per cent of all Assembly constituencies in Bihar. In these, it was not the winning party of the February election that was re-elected in October, but a new one. As a result of this massive change, one particular party emerged as a clear winner and a new government was formed: the JD(U) government under Nitish Kumar. Our analysis shows that this change in election outcome was fundamentally brought about by the women voters.

We start by making two important observations. First, from February to October, the female poll percentage increased from 42.5 to 44.5 while that of male voters declined from 50 per cent to 47 per cent. Second, the average growth rate in the number of female voters was almost three times more in the constituencies where there was a change in the winning party in comparison to those constituencies where the same political parties were re-elected. In sharp contrast, there was no change in the average growth rate of male voters across the two types of constituencies. We analysed the distribution of the growth rates in numbers of female and male voters between the two elections, and compared the constituencies where the same party was re-elected with the constituencies where political parties were not re-elected and a new winner was declared. We found that the distribution of the growth rate of female voters in these two types of constituencies is very different while the distribution of male voters is similar. The observations put together imply that not only did more women cast their votes in the re-election, but they caused the change in outcomes in these elections on average.

Next, we tested the re-election prospects at the constituency level more rigorously(strictly,सख्ती के साथ). We studied the effect of the growth rate in female and male voters on the probability of re-election for a political party in each Bihar assembly constituency. In our analysis, we accounted for the fact that there will be district-level variations (there are 38 districts). On an average, each district has six to seven Assembly constituencies. Our results strongly indicate that growth rates in female voters had a negative effect on the probability of re-election of a political party, while the rise in the number of male voters had a positive effect on the probability of re-election. So while Bihari women came out in large numbers and voted for political change in the State, the men were satisfied with status quo(current situation,यथापूर्व स्थिति) and voted to retain it in the 2005 elections. This is the reason why we conclude that women were largely the agents of change in 2005 by lending support to Mr. Kumar’s JD(U), while overwhelmingly voting against Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal.

These results from Bihar confirm the fact that men and women can vote very differently. For traditional patriarchal societies, this is a remarkable political evolution when women can break away from the established mores of society and vote independently from their husbands and fathers. There is vast literature in politics which establishes the necessity of universal suffrage(right to vote,मताधिकार) for a healthy representative democracy, and yet, while advocating universal suffrage, James Mill had argued that in order to keep the expenses of a representative system down, women need not have separate voting rights because their interests were included within those of their husbands and fathers. Bihari women have shown that the interests of half the society are not merely significant, but also distinct from the interests of the other half. This is reflected in their voting behaviour. Recent political announcements from Mr. Kumar on liquor prohibition in the State suggest that he acknowledges the support of the ‘vote bank’ that got him into power. And he is readying himself to appease them for an encore(repeated,फिर से). But the worthy question that remains unanswered is what do Bihari women voters want and does Prime Minister Narendra Modi have a clue?

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Moot point in a headline

What is a newspaper’s responsibility? To tell a story? Or draw eyeballs to that story in the first place?
I’m not one for pop-motivational quotes on calendars and posters, but I love reading stories about people who inspire through their lives. Many of them, unsurprisingly, are sportspeople. For most of us, that level of control over one’s life, the focus and discipline needed to become great in sport, in something, is a distant dream — heck, I can’t bring myself to commit to swimming three times a week. So I was riveted(focus,ध्यान आकर्षित) by the long interview with Olympic diver Tom Daley The Guardian ran on July 18. It’s a fantastic interview, describing what it is to live a public life even as one strives for personal glory. “The competition is ferocious(violent,उग्र), particularly from the Chinese, and there is no margin for error... But there was more... there was the recent death of Daley’s father, the bullying at school and on Twitter, and the humiliation he had suffered in Beijing four years earlier, when his synchro partner Blake Aldridge (26 at the time) blamed the then 14-year-old for their failure to win a medal.”

This is just the second paragraph of the over-4000-word story, whose headline was: Tom Daley: ‘I always knew I was attracted to guys’.

I was dismayed(disappointed,निराश). The story speaks of physical strain (torn triceps). It talks about dealing with a father’s brain cancer, becoming Britain’s youngest competitor at the Beijing Olympics, what it’s like to be a diver. (“He hits the water at 35mph, and has said that every time he dives it’s like a car crash. Even when he gets it right, it hurts.”) Then there’s the training schedule: “11 sessions a week in the gym and dry dive, 11 pool sessions, and one session of ballet. Each session lasts between two and three hours.” And the diet: “egg whites and spinach and a bowl of porridge(soft food,दलिया) for breakfast, chicken and pulses for lunch, and salmon or chicken with steamed vegetables for dinner. Every day the same regime(rule,नियम), same food, same 10 p.m. bedtime.” It’s the stuff of an Oscar-ready Hollywood biopic. But the headline makes Daley’s life seem like an episode from a teen soap opera.

On one level, it’s easy to understand why a publication would resort to such a suggestive headline. With so much content out there on the web, a headline like “Tom Daley eats spinach and sleeps at 10 p.m.” might not grab as many eyeballs. There’s a Hollywood angle too — Daley’s partner is screenwriter Dustin Lance Black, who won an Oscar for his screenplay for Milk. And as everyone knows, cinema sells. But while I could see the logic behind this headline, I couldn’t accept its trivialisation(make insignificant or cheap,तुच्छ) of Daley’s efforts, the way it telescoped his life to just one thing.

Newspapers’ responsibility

This isn’t about the story itself. This is a question about a newspaper’s responsibility. Is it merely to tell the story, or to draw eyeballs to that story in the first place? Take the case of American football player Michael Sam — let’s stick with sportspeople, though this is really about all public figures, all high-profile achievers — who created history by coming out as gay. When he made the announcement, in February 2014, this New York Times headline made perfect sense: N.F.L. Prospect Michael Sam Proudly Says What Teammates Knew: He’s Gay. Because that was the story. Sam’s gayness was the issue — because of how the very “macho” NFL would react, and because of how the announcement would affect Sam’s prospects of being drafted by a team, which would now have an extremely visible player on its hands. An assistant coach said, on nbcsports.com, “You shouldn’t have to live your life in secrecy... but do you really want to be the top of the conversation for everything without ever having played a down in this league?”

But Daley’s story isn’t about his coming out. That story broke in April 2014, with this perfectly appropriate Daily Mail headline: Five months after coming out as a bisexual, Tom Daley declares ‘I am a gay man now’ and his current relationship is ‘all good’. A whole year later — centuries in this digital age — is this still news? Is this angle the only one readers are supposed to be interested in?

Such a headline is a problem for quite a few reasons. One, many people do not have the time or the patience to read long stories, so the headline plays a huge part in what they take away from it. Two, whenever there’s talk of someone from the LGBTQ community, there’s the tendency to focus on their sexuality. (For contrast, see the August 2014 Sports Illustrated interview with Roger Federer. It talks about his wife and kids, but the headline is sedate(serious,गंभीर), befitting(appropriate,उपयुक्त) the great man: Roger Federer on historic career: ‘I never thought it would be like this’.) Then again, Federer’s personal life has been as sedate as that headline, which leads me to Point Three: If one’s personal life is flashy or unconventional, then that becomes the overwhelming focus. Ask poor Virat Kohli. A March 2015 story in the Hindustan Times came with this breathless headline: Virat Kohli, Anushka Sharma arrive hand-in-hand from Australia. He seemed like someone returning not so much from a World Cup semi-final loss as a blissed(happy,आनंदमय)-out honeymoon.

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