Green goals for the Delhi aam aadmi

If strict regulations for capping automobile licenses are followed, Delhi’s citizens can reap(get,प्राप्त करना) triple benefits: cleaner air, quicker and safer transportation, and more money in their pockets
After earning global recognition for improved air quality only a decade ago, Delhi has now won the unenviable(undesirable,अवांछनीय) distinction of having the most polluted air among major cities of the world. No resident is immuneV9U  to its effects; even Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was treated for chronic respiratory illness.

Recent media reports on Delhi’s foul air have elicited a flurry of advice, but structural problems cannot have individual solutions. They must be tackled institutionally, by rules that set new parameters for consumer and corporate behaviour. Consider one instance. Children, whose young bodies and brains are especially susceptible(sensitive,अतिसवेंदनशील) to harm from dirty air, play outside. You cannot put air purifiers outdoors. Imagine schoolchildren running in playgrounds wearing pollution masks. This is not the stuff of science fiction — it may become reality unless the government takes steps to clean the air.

The All India Institute of Medical Sciences reports a four-fold increase in respiratory ailments such as asthma, since 2007. Gains in air quality from 1998 to 2004, when court judgments ordered conversion of buses and three-wheelers to CNG, have been more than offset by rising emissions from other sources in the last decade, including cars and trucks, power plants, industry, brick kilns, diesel generators, construction, road dust, and open burning of wastes.  Apart from their overall contribution, vehicular emissions are especially important by virtue of their role in the city’s worst pollution exposure levels along its major roadways.

Seven measures

The power of Delhi’s new Aam Aadmi Party government to tackle these is limited, but by no means non-existent. The government cannot on its own upgrade the nation’s fuel standards to Bharat V and VI norms in line with global benchmarks, nor ensure timely completion of bypass roads in neighbouring States. However, there are seven measures that are within its reach, if it finds the political will to act.

First, the new government can move quickly to ensure accurate, real-time reporting of pollution levels in the city. The public has the right to know the facts about the air it breathes.

Second, emergency measures such as closing schools should be implemented whenever pollution levels cross a hazardous(dangerous,जोखिम) threshold(line,दहलीज़). This will not only protect the most vulnerable(weak,कमज़ोर) — children — but also raise public awareness about the problem.

Third, particulate-quality pollution masks should be supplied free of charge to all traffic police, sanitation workers, rickshaw-pullers, auto-rickshaw drivers, construction workers and others who are disproportionately exposed to ambient air pollution on arterial roads, where pollution routinely soars off the charts.

Fourth, Delhi can set stringent(tough,कठोर) emissions standards for trucks entering the city. Those that fail to comply can be required to transfer their loads to trucks that do. This will be inconvenient and costly, but less costly than more deterioration in public health. And it will prompt the trucking industry and manufacturers to get their own environmental houses in order.

Fifth, the misguided national subsidy on diesel — a subsidy intended to benefit the poor and is instead well-harvested by wealthy automobile owners — should be offset in Delhi by an equivalent tax. The Centre for Science and Environment cites World Bank data showing that particulate emissions from diesel engines are 6-10 times higher than for petrol engines.

Sixth, the government should begin a fundamental reorientation of transport infrastructure investment that moves away from private automobiles and towards pedestrians, bicycles and e-rickshaws as well as buses (including state-of-the art bus rapid transit like the successful system in Bogota, the capital of Colombia) and light rail. In a big city, there is really no such thing as private transportation. There are private vehicles, but they can only move on public infrastructure. Public policy should serve people, not cars.

The revenue question

This will cost money. Where will it come from? This brings us to our final measure. Like the Singapore government, Delhi should cap the number of private automobile licenses. As in Singapore, these should be auctioned at the price set by demand, and be valid for a fixed time span (10 years in Singapore). In Singapore, the current auction price is about U.S. $60,000.

Part of the revenue should be returned to all the residents of Delhi in equal payments to every woman, man and child — a transfer from the one per cent who will pay the auction price to the aam aadmi. The other part should be used to fund the green urban infrastructure that truly befits a “world city.”

How much money would this cap and auction bring in? Today, roughly 2.9 million automobiles are registered in Delhi, although the actual number on the roads may be half that much, since the official data include vehicles no longer in circulation, or being used away from the city. If left unchecked, the number will grow rapidly, with projections for 2020 as high as 3.5-4.2 million. Such growth would prove disastrous not only for air quality, especially near arterial roads, but also for traffic congestion. Already cars in Delhi crawl at speeds of less than 4 kilometres per hour 24 per cent of the time they're on the road, and less than 15 km per hour for 40 per cent of the time.

If Delhi caps the number of license plates in 2020 at, say, the current circulating level of around 1.5 million, and auctions them off, these might fetch Rs. 12 lakh (U.S.$20,000) apiece, about one-third of their current Singapore price. Total revenue would come to $30 billion. Over a 10-year license life, this is $3 billion or Rs. 18,000 crore per year. If the cap is ratcheted down over time to 5,00,000 cars, and this pushes the auction price to Rs. 36 lakh (the Singapore level), the amount of revenue would be the same.

If two-thirds of this revenue were returned to Delhi’s residents, this would amount to Rs. 4,800 per person per year, or Rs. 24,000 per year for a family of five, for a projected 2020 population of 25 million — enough to win strong backing from the public. Payments could be made directly into electronic accounts keyed to the new Aadhaar IDs. If the other third, Rs. 6,000 crore per year, were devoted to infrastructure, this would increase the city’s transportation budget by about 150 per cent, accelerating development of alternative transportation that must accompany less reliance on the automobile.

Delhi residents would reap a triple benefit: cleaner air, quicker and safer transportation, and, for all except license-plate buyers, more money in their pockets. The measures recommended above are eminently feasible, given AAP’s handsome mandate. If the new government can achieve these goals, everyone in the capital will be healthier, and Mr. Kejriwal himself will be wheezing(unhealthy,घर्र घर्र करना) and coughing less at his next electoral joust. He might even get re-elected. The costs of failure will be high, not only for the Chief Minister and his party, but for the citizens of Delhi, too.

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In defence, time for tough decisions

Opting to drastically downsize 17 Corps and buy Rafale fighters were two bold, but not necessarily good, moves. Now, it’s time for the Defence Minister to create a unified services chief.
Arun Jaitley and Manohar Parrikar, the government’s first and incumbent(current,पदस्थ) Defence Ministers, respectively, perhaps hoped that the pitiful record of their predecessor A.K. Antony, India’s longest continuously serving Defence Minister, would make their task easier. Instead, it’s been quite the opposite. Mr. Parrikar seems to have spent the last several months cleaning up what he insists is a fiscal and policy mess bequeathed(leave,वसीयत करना) to the government and overlooked by Mr. Jaitley, who was, for a brief period, wearing two hats as Finance and Defence Minister. But is Mr. Parrikar leaving the place tidier(clean,साफ सुथरे ढंग से) than he found it, or laying down an unhelpful legacy of his own? Three areas are worth looking at more closely: the slashing of the much advertised 17 Corps, the country’s first mountain strike force; the sudden re-jigging of a deal to purchase France’s Rafale fighter aircraft; and, most importantly, the vexed(troubled,विवादस्पद) question of reforming India’s military command.

Two years ago, the previous Congress-led government announced the raising of 17 Corps, which, unlike 1, 2, and 21, would be directed at China rather than Pakistan, and therefore configured for mountain warfare. It would consist of two infantry divisions, three artillery brigades, three armoured brigades, and a host of supporting land and air units. Mountain units aren’t as mobile as those that fight in the plains, and so require plentiful airlift, particularly helicopters and light artillery. The 17 Corps would be large, with around 80,000 men, and expensive, costing well over $10 billion, $1.2 billion of which would have to be spent annually till the early 2020s. To put that in perspective, the Indian Army’s entire allocation for 2015-16 is $16 billion. As Mr. Parrikar asked, “Where is the money?”

Two out of three

Mr. Parrikar’s response has been to more than halve(divide,आधा करना) the size of 17 Corps to just 35,000 men, and to propose that the Army take a long, hard look at its current strike corps and other Pakistan-facing units. This will have mixed results. On the one hand, loudly raising new units on paper and then quietly slashing them sends a signal of weakness, even fecklessness(worthless,लापरवाही), to your adversaries. Critics will accuse Mr. Parrikar of gutting India’s modest offensive capability against China even before it got off the ground. On the other hand, downsizing creates an opportunity to ensure that the pruned(cut,छाँटना) 17 Corps can now actually afford the equipment and supporting platforms it needs if it is to be combat-effective. It is better to have a smaller and more potent force than a large and flabby one.

Mr. Parrikar can turn this decision into an opportunity, but only if he focusses on explaining his intentions rather than on blaming previous governments.

The second choice, one in which Mr. Parrikar seems to have been largely uninvolved, is India’s decision this month to purchase 36 French Rafale fighters, multirole aircraft that can defend the skies and strike targets on the ground, in so-called “flyaway” condition. The catch is that India originally wanted to buy 126 aircraft, and was using the leverage of such a large order to negotiate a substantial transfer of technology to India. Although the idea goes back years, it dovetailed(fit together,मेल खाना) perfectly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in India’ initiative. It now seems that India effectively blinked. Nothing is to be made in India and everything will be imported. In the last three years, Indian arms imports have grown 56 per cent. This government is close to failing its first serious test at addressing that trend.

The deal also places a huge question mark over where the remaining 90 aircraft, required to keep the Air Force at reasonable strength, will come from. Mr. Parrikar has suggested, almost off-hand, that India might buy another light, single-engine fighter to supplement the indigenous(native,स्वदेशी) Tejas, as part of the process of replacing the ageing MiG-21. This could include the Swedish Gripen NG fighter jet, a cheaper but attractive aircraft that lost out to Rafale earlier. But this throws up fresh problems. First, it would increase the variety of aircraft in the Air Force inventory, something that has been an issue since the 1990s, which increases the burden on training and maintenance. Second, it’s a bit like comparing apples and oranges: the Gripen and Rafale have different strengths and weaknesses, so the optimal balance between them would depend entirely on the kind of Air Force India wants to develop. Without some public statement that clarifies India’s defence posture, it’s hard to judge whether Mr. Parrikar is following a carefully thought-out plan or, more likely, improvising. Mr. Parrikar has justified the deal by calling it “oxygen relief” for the Air Force, but short-term impulsive buys will generate problems down the line.

As the British politican Nigel Lawson once observed, “To govern is to choose. To appear to be unable to choose is to appear to be unable to govern”. The government’s decisions on both the mountain strike corps and Rafale are bold choices, even if it’s unclear whether they are good ones. But in a third area, the government has not chosen at all.

Wanted: unified services chief

It is widely accepted that India’s civil-military relations and higher defence management are unfit to meet the needs of a rising, ambitious power in the top tier of Asian military forces. Successive government-appointed committees stretching back decades, and innumerable experts have made it clear that India’s three services must be stitched together with a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) or equivalent post, sitting above the three service chiefs, who would be capable of giving the government coherent(logical,सुसंगत) advice on military matters and imposing unity of purpose on the Army, Air Force, and Navy. As the scholar Anit Mukherjee wrote this month, “Left to themselves, they have not even been able to agree on training their musicians together, let alone pooling resources for joint training and logistics”.

In mid-March, Mr. Parrikar candidly(clearly,स्पष्ठ) acknowledged that “integration of the three forces does not exist in the existing structure”, and promised that “in the next two to three months my Cabinet note with the recommendation for a CDS will go to the Cabinet Committee on Security for the final decision”. He added that “a CDS is a must”. This is extremely promising, but caution is in order. If the Minister is serious, he should draw on the wealth of studies and recommendations produced by past committees to set out his vision for defence reforms. Every past effort has foundered on political and bureaucratic opposition. If Mr. Parrikar does not wish to go down as yet another Minister who raised expectations and fell well short, this is the time to take his commitment seriously. If he gets this decision right, it will be remembered long after the Rafale is retired.

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Japan and quake preparedness

A robust(strong,मजबूत) disaster management programme which includes various aspects of mitigating(make less,कम करना) after-effects, sensitisation of the public, warning systems, and architectural changes resulting in quake-resistant buildings has characterised Japan’s earthquake preparedness
The earthquake in Nepal has jolted(shaken,विचलित) the world. According to initial estimations by the United Nations, eight million people in 39 districts have been affected. Of them, over two million people live in 11 severely affecte d districts. Ninety per cent of the houses there have been “flattened”. Heritage buildings are now rubble(broken,मलबा), thousands are homeless, many have lost livestock, and have little food. On behalf of all Japanese citizens, I extend my heartfelt condolences(grief,शोक) and prayers to those who have lost their lives, their families and those affected. I hope international help is able to ensure rapid rehabilitation and reconstruction.

I recollect how Nepal and India were quick to support Japan when it faced a similar situation in 2011, during the To¯hoku tsunami where more than 20,000 people died.

Japan falls in a seismically(earthquake,भूकंपीय) active region and earthquakes are a part of life. Japanese seismologists and engineers are always working on solutions to mitigate the loss and damage caused by earthquakes. Most difficulties stem from the fact that the occurrence of major earthquakes spans intervals that are generally longer than the average lifespan of citizens. And memory is short. There is a saying here: “When danger passes, even god is forgotten.” For example, memories of the 2011 tsunami have long passed. Therefore, the question is: how long will you remember a disaster? And how do you pass on the lessons learnt? In this article, I would like to address this issue and look at what needs to be done, from the point of view of someone who lives in a seismic zone.

Earthquake forecasting

An earthquake is a sudden violent shaking of the ground, typically causing great destruction, as a result of volcanic action or movements deep within the earth’s crust. The Nepal quake resulted from a collision(hit,टक्कर) between the Indian crustal block and the Eurasian continent. Geophysicists know that the entire Indian subcontinent is being driven slowly but surely beneath Nepal at a speed of five centimetres a year. This generates a five-metre contraction over a century and results in silent stress build-up in the inner crustal rock. An earthquake occurs when stress accumulation reaches critical point. Over millions of years, the squeezing(press firmly,दबाना) has crushed the Himalayas, raising mountains and triggering earthquakes on a regular basis. This will continue. This dynamic process will also induce stress accumulation in India. The Gujarat earthquake of 2001 was a result of this process. This shows that a quake is sure to occur in future.

Like Japan, Nepal is also located in one of the most seismic active zones. “An earthquake repeats itself”, which is a Japanese proverb, is apt here as well. Earthquake forecasting is a kind of historical science. If you can find documentation of a quake in ancient literature or legend, that place is bound to be earthquake prone. I pose this question next: do you know the earthquake history of your region? But let me not be an alarmist. The India Meteorological Department keeps track of all this. However, I suppose most people don’t know. It is perfectly natural that people do not worry about such things; it’s the same in Japan as well. As scientists, we try to create awareness about earthquake risk in the form of public lectures, mass media campaigns, science shows and governmental meetings. Therefore, “risk recognition” is the first step towards disaster mitigation.

In Nepal, researchers did track active earthquake history and issued warnings about a possible and destructive quake. For example, my colleague visited Nepal frequently to research strong ground shaking to help in disaster mitigation studies. Earthquake science still does not have a tool for imminent earthquake prediction. Therefore, being prepared for one is a crucial, and, often, the only step for disaster mitigation.

Disaster and public policy

In an earthquake, most of the damage is caused by collapsing buildings. In Nepal, most victims died this way. This is a major problem confronting architects. Recent architectural developments, however, allow for the construction of quake-resistant buildings, but such construction is more expensive than an ordinary building. Therefore, cost-effective solutions are also a challenge.

The Japanese believe and agree that anti-disaster investments are lifesavers. If the Indian government makes a public investment in this area, it should first come to some sort of social agreement in disaster mitigation. The role of the mass media is also important because it plays a key role in creating awareness about disaster preparedness. This must be emphasised. We must remember that it is people and commercial companies that are involved in construction and not the government. So, disaster mitigation cannot achieve optimal results unless there is understanding and cooperation. The media should also highlight the benefits of public and commercial investments.

Japanese anti-quake construction technology places a premium on high performance. Hence, what is suitable for Japanese conditions may not work elsewhere, in terms of applicability and cost. I suppose the export of such technology may not solve problems elsewhere. Therefore, the Government of India must develop an anti-disaster technology that suits Indian construction and conditions.

Risk evaluation and management

Disaster mitigation measures also require risk evaluation for rural and urban areas. In high-risk regions, there must be public investment. Policymakers in India must look at those parts of the country that have high quake potential. Records show that the western, coastal and northern regions are at high risk. Another important factor is “occurrence frequency and probability”. Shorter intervals between quakes indicate a high probability. At the same time, longer intervals also produce high probability. An evaluation of these factors will give one the basic information required. I would also like to add that earthquake research can’t operate on a commercial basis, so government funding is a must for scientific investigation.

The Japanese government operates the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion based on Special Measure Law on Earthquake Disaster Prevention. Its director is a minister and its committees consist of government officers, governors, professors and researchers. The most important role of this special inter-ministry organisation is to publish probabilistic seismic hazard(risky,खतरनाक) maps resulting from probability evaluation of earthquake occurrences. It also conducts unified national earthquake research — as geological surveys, earthquake monitoring and computer modelling. The results from all these projects produce the probability of earthquake occurrences. For instance, its research has shown that a strong shaking probability for the Tokyo Metropolitan area for next 30 years exceeds 80 per cent.

Earthquake risk is defined in the following way — multiplication of earthquake magnitude, probability and social fragility(weak,कमज़ोर). Scientific data can only estimate magnitude and probability. This shows that if a place is “very fragile”, even a small earthquake can result in disaster. “High fragility” is the state of being unprepared by having non-quake-resistant construction. Mankind has no control over the magnitude and probability of a quake but architectural engineering can help reduce the fragility. Japanese quake-resistant house and building compliance is now about 80 per cent.

Response and supporting technology

In a quake, the survival time of someone who is buried is 72 hours. Therefore, rapid initial rescue is crucial. Who does the rescue then? The fire department? The police? The military? In a quake, one must be able to think of how to survive and escape. This is the experience in Japan. What if help is inadequate(not enough,अपर्याप्त)?

A real-time earthquake observation system should support the quick start of a rescue. In Japan, any seismic activity of more than ‘5+’ intensity automatically activates governmental response. There is surveillance by self-defence forces, a disaster countermeasure preparation office starts working, and a medical assistance team is on standby. For any smooth operation, there has to be a drill. So, disaster prevention agencies and governments frequently conduct all kinds of training and simulate situations. But even the best trained rescue operation requires lead time to access sites.

In Japan, a real-time Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is in operation. If a quake is in the sea, the speed of an earthquake wave is about 8 km per second, which is slower than an electric signal. If the epicentre is away from one’s location, an electric signal reaches faster than the shake that gives the lead time before the quake arrives. An EEW alert is automatically triggered whenever any seismometer detects a seismic signal. There are alerts to the public through the media and the Internet. Trains, elevators and industrial machines are stopped automatically.

These examples show how earthquake monitoring data might help decrease the impact of a disaster. However, for the full impact of such a system, there needs to be a high ratio of anti-quake construction. How does one minimise the chances of being buried alive? The point is that government investment in anti-quake construction takes precedence over a modern alert system.

The annual disaster prevention drill in Japanese schools also plays an important role. Students are taught to hide below their desks in a quake. In their syllabus, they learn about natural disasters, disaster history, and hazard mapping.

Importance of legislation

Legislation also plays a most important role in disaster mitigation. The Japanese government has amended the Building Standard Law at regular intervals to reflect the advances in science and technology, and the lessons learnt from the last earthquake that occurred. The present version requires that new constructions should not be damaged in a medium earthquake and must not collapse in a large earthquake. These stringent(tough,कठोर) measures have successfully reduced human toll in recent quakes. There is also a programme of tax incentives for anti-quake construction, that has enabled a higher ratio of anti-quake constructions in Japan. Therefore, economic incentives are also required to achieve actual law implementation.

With a proper legal system in place, new constructions will be better adapted for high seismic activity. We should try to develop a legal system, especially a Building Standard Law for earthquake disaster mitigation. Another countermeasure against quake disaster is a city planning policy and advance reconstruction policies. I believe these insights based on actual disaster experiences in Japan will go a long way to help save precious lives.

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Killing a country’s ecology

The Environment Minister insists on clearing all hydro projects, even when the government itself earlier agreed that the Himalayas must be avoided for development work.
A battle of epic proportions between the hydroelectric power companies and the people of Uttarakhand has now culminated(at highest,पराकाष्ठा पर पहुंचना) with the struggle shifting to the office of the Prime Minister of India. It began with the extraordinary and far-sighted 2014 decision of the Supreme Court in the Alaknanda Hydro Power Company case, where the Court said it was concerned with the mushrooming(grow fast,तेज़ी से फेलना) of hydroelectric projects adversely affecting the Alaknanda and Bhagirathi river basins.

The cumulative impact of dams, tunnels, blasting, the construction of power houses, garbage creation, mining and deforestation on the eco system has not yet been studied. The June 2013 tragedy that affected the Char Dham area of Uttarakhand, where thousands of people were killed and there was massive damage to property, forced a rethinking on projects. It was now considered important to make a cumulative assessment of bumper-to-bumper projects, where the rivers of the Himalayas are diverted from their normal course and channelled into tunnels, released at a lower level, then re-channeled into another pipeline, which ultimately leaves the main course of the river without water. The mistake made in the earlier environmental assessments — treating each project as stand-alone without going into the cumulative effect of all of them — was questioned by the Supreme Court. The Court, therefore, ordered the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) to constitute an Expert Committee to study the cumulative effects of such projects on the environment, on the stability of the Himalayas, and their adverse effect on the Himalayan rivers.

Unreliable assessments

The Expert Committee’s report is possibly one of the best ever made on the fragile(weak,कमज़ोर) ecology of the Himalayas. It almost unanimously found that Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) clearances were unreliable, wrongly prepared, made on the basis of false information submitted by the Hydroelectric Projects (HEPs), and that the clearances, in some cases, were motivated. These clearances, therefore, could not be relied upon for the continuation of these projects.

The Committee concluded that EIA reports should be done by an independent agency and not by the project proponent, and said that HEPs had an irreversible negative impact on the environment.

Five of the six projects now being examined afresh are in the para-glacial zone, rendering them extremely hazardous(risky,खतरनाक). As the glaciers recede due to construction activity, the land exposed becomes unstable, and an unusual cloudburst could again result in tragedy. The adverse impact on rivers and water quality and on forests, biodiversity and wild life are set out in detail.

The scathing report of the Wildlife Institute of India that pointed to the devastation that would be caused to wildlife in the Himalayas was also relied upon. One chapter deals with the proximity of HEPs to national parks and eco-sensitive areas and the impact on these areas. The report responds to the classic defence of project proponents that they would do compensatory afforestation by concluding that such afforestation was poorly done. The Committee concludes that the negative impacts of HEPs cannot be mitigated(make less,कम करना). The blasting of rocks, creation of garbage, and the receding of glaciers are a concomitant of all industrial activity in the Himalayas and, if the Himalayas and the Ganga are to be saved, there is no way forward but to scrap such projects.

Government support

To its credit, the Union of India initially supported the Expert Committee Report, pointing out that even prior to this report the B.K. Chaturvedi Inter-Ministerial Group, the Planning Commission, the G.B. Mukherjee Task Force Report, the CAG report, the Neeri report, and the Geological Survey of India (GSI) report had all recommended that hydroelectric projects be severely curtailed(restrict,रोकना) as they destroyed the environment. The Union of India pointed out that the Gangotri Valley and the Valley of Flowers were in eco-sensitive zones. It agreed that the seven main Indian rivers ought to be kept pristine(clean,साफ़ सुथरा), that the Himalayas are weak, the rivers drying up, and, in 2013, as against the state claim of 65 per cent forest cover, the actual cover was only 46 per cent.

The Union said that earlier environmental clearances had to be reviewed and a cumulative environmental impact approach adopted, with sensitive areas in the Himalayas avoided for development work. Referring to the GSI report, the Union of India said the entire Ganga basin was in Seismic Zones IV and V, which carries the highest degree of catastrophe(disaster,प्रलय) possibility. A reference was also made to the Planning Commission recommendation that the projects be decommissioned.

However, despite the Union of India’s stand, the Minister for Environment and Forests, Prakash Javadekar, does not agree. He has made it his life mission to clear all projects, irrespective of their environmental impact. It is this attitude that has made India a country of toxic rivers, destroyed forests, declining groundwater resources, and the highest degrees of air pollution in the world. After the Union of India took a public stand that fully supported the findings and recommendations of the Expert Committee, Mr. Javadekar has set about clearing all projects. In typical bureaucratic style, a four-member Committee of Experts was appointed to make a report on a report. However, it did not play ball, pointing out that though environmental clearances were granted, the six projects studied would adversely impact aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity and the flow of the river.

They would impact the protected areas of the Nanda Devi National Park and Biosphere Reserve, the Valley of Flowers National Park (World Heritage Site), the Kedarnath Wild Life Sanctuary, and the Alaknanda III, Bhyundar and Dhauli Ganga biodiversity-rich sub-basins, which are the habitat of the rare and endangered Himalayan Brown Bear. The diversion of water through the construction of underground tunnels poses a serious risk to water life. The Committee of Experts unanimously noted that environmental clearances have to be reviewed and the six projects must not be taken up as they have the potential to cause a significant impact on the environment.

The future of the Himalayas and its rivers are at stake. Indeed, the future of India is in the balance. Within the government, well-meaning officials and Ms. Uma Bharti are fighting to clean up the Ganges, while Mr. Javedkar and his friends in industry battle to finish off what little is left of the Himalayas, its rivers and glaciers. The Prime Minister of India has to decide on which side he stands.

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The bricks to rebuild IBSA

IBSA need not be about the UN Security Council alone. Apart from common security concerns that India, South Africa and Brazil share, IBSA could articulate(clear said,सुस्पष्ठ रूप से) the need for maritime peace, stability and the rule of law in the Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic
Google the acronym “IBSA” and you will get news about the International Blind Sports Federation and the Illinois Baptist State Association. When was the last time you heard about the other IBSA? At the time of its launch a decade ago, IBSA was referred to as the coming together of the “biggest democracies” of Asia, Latin America and Africa — India, Brazil and South Africa. In his address at IBSA’s first summit in Brasilia, in September 2006, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, “The idea of IBSA is without precedent.” Today, the Indian Foreign Minister is trying hard to find a meeting date convenient to all to host a pre-summit meeting; the next summit is scheduled to be held in New Delhi later this year.

The rise of BRICS

IBSA was visualised as the coming together of three great democracies of the developing world, all three, multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multicultural, committed to the rule of law in international affairs and the strengthening of multilateral institutions. IBSA, its founding heads of government said, would not just be a trilateral gathering of officials; it would also facilitate the coming together of businesses and civil societies in these three democracies.

Launched with much fanfare and promise, as an association of developing country democracies that believe they have a right to claim permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), IBSA has been overshadowed over the past few years by that other acronym without an adjective, BRICS. Launched by Russia and repeatedly injected with life by China, BRICS has moved beyond ritual to claim for itself the status of being a counterpoint to the Group of Seven (G7). Cleverly manipulated by Russia and China, and with India adding purpose to it with its sponsorship of the idea of a BRICS New Development Bank, the summit of the five-nation BRICS gets 6,40,000 search results on Google, compared to the 88,200 results for an IBSA summit.

But the issue is not about such trivial(small,तुच्छ) differences. The fact is that the political leadership of both Russia and China have shown greater commitment to the idea of BRICS, and pushing their anti-West agenda through it, than have the political leadership of Brazil, India and South Africa to IBSA, and to its pro-democracy agenda. IBSA observers — and there are not too many of them around — believe that China has been successfully influencing South Africa’s current leadership to ignore IBSA and pay more attention to BRICS.

UNSC link

However, to be sure, in a world where countries have multiple interests and loyalties, most are members of several and a growing number of associations. Indeed, many countries have become members of associations that often have conflicting objectives. In a globe where no one wants to be left out of any new group, the proliferation of groups has crowded the travel itinerary(travel plan,यात्राविवरण) of foreign ministers. It’s like New Delhi’s elite(group of best,विशिष्ट वर्ग) who seek membership of all available clubs but have no time for any, given their hectic professional and personal life. Nations too join many associations, after a fashion, and end up paying little attention to most.

Something like this fashion victimhood has befallen IBSA. Its government leaders are so busy at home and with other summits that they have no time for IBSA. One reason for this is that the compelling shared objective that brought IBSA into being a decade ago, namely UNSC restructuring and membership, seems to have become less compelling. Countries aspiring for UNSC reform and restructuring and for permanent membership seem to have given up all hope of change.

Reviving IBSA

Interestingly, though, there seems to be a change in India’s stance on this score. Prime Minister Narendra Modi signalled a renewed commitment to the goal of UNSC membership when he told an audience in Paris earlier this month that permanent membership of the UNSC is “India’s right”, and not just a favour it begs for. Are Brazil and South Africa also ready to assert this right?

The argument that since the world’s status quo powers are only paying lip service to UNSC reform and expansion and will not allow any change, the IBSA must give up staking their claim is ridiculous. The UN governance system, as indeed that of all the post-Second World War multilateral institutions, has become moribund(death,मृत). The bankruptcy of the UNSC is all too visible in its inability to deter(prevent,डरा कर रोकना) unilateral action by powerful countries. So, if the UNSC had failed to prevent action by the United States in Iraq, it failed to thwart(prevent,व्यर्थ करना) Russian action in Crimea and Saudi Arabia’s bombing of Yemen. Against this backdrop, the voice of the three great democracies of the developing world would carry weight, if properly and appropriately articulated. But IBSA need not be about UNSC alone. The three countries have some common security concerns. Drug trafficking, money laundering and terrorism is one such. Maritime security is another. Just as the world has sought stability and the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region, IBSA could articulate the need for maritime peace, stability and the rule of law in the Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic. If Brazil dominates the South Atlantic and India dominates the Indian Ocean, South Africa shares a coastline with both oceans.

As the dominant power of what can be called the Indo-Atlantic region, Brazil, India and South Africa can come forward with a maritime doctrine(belief,सिद्धान्त) for the region based on international law and democratic principles. Maritime security, freedom of navigation, climate change and energy security could be the common agenda that IBSA can pursue, adding meat to the trio’s skeletal structure.

While distance acts as a disincentive in Brazil-India relations, the structure of their economies is such that there is great complementarity. Brazil has a high land-man ratio, with ample(large,abundance,बहुत सारा) natural resources on a per capita basis, and India has a low land-man ratio, and is resource poor on a per capita basis. This creates synergy. Equally, Brazil and India can work together to build a stronger manufacturing base, with untapped potential in defence manufacturing. The potential for India-South Africa business relations remains high and not fully tapped.

As ‘East-West’ bridge

Beyond the potential for deeper and wider bilateral economic relations, IBSA have shared political concerns. While all three emerging powers feel equally frustrated by the West’s unwillingness to yield(give,देना) space in global governance, they also have a shared concern in China’s growing influence in their own individual neighbourhoods. If India worries about China’s rising profile in South Asia, Brazil worries about China’s growing clout in Latin America, and South Africa finds its influence in Africa receding as more of its neighbours turn to China.

Thus, both on account of their inability to get the G7 and the P-5 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council) to raise their stake in global governance, and on account of the challenge they face within their own neighbourhood from China’s growing economic presence, IBSA have a substantial, shared, meaningful agenda to chalk out and pursue. The problem is that not many in the three capitals are paying any attention to these issues.

Also, recall the fact that while the international community responded with alacrity to the Trans-Atlantic financial crisis of 2008-09 and elevated the G20 into a summit level forum of developing and developed economies, the G20 have since been riven by differences between the G7 and BRICS. While some portray the G7 vs BRICS interplay as a “North-South” divide, the fact is that IBSA are today the real representatives of the South on most multilateral economic issues and on subjects pertaining to global governance.

Rather than being content with membership of BRICS, there is a case for IBSA — the Indo-Atlantic powers — to step up their interactions in dealing with both the countries of the North Atlantic and the rising powers of Eurasia, and arrive at a shared strategic perspective on a range of global issues. As countries of the “South”, and given their shared concerns, IBSA could in fact act as a bridge between the “West” and the “East”, so to speak.

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Farming is not a political game

Given the high investment and negative incentives such as input subsidies, small farmers have not benefited from government schemes.
Everything about the suicide of the farmer from Dausa, Gajendra Singh, save the tragedy for his family, has been theatre — the very public venue, the occasion of a political rally, the politicians happily playing their populist cards, and the media’s focus on trivialities(something of small importance,तुच्छ). The tragedy is being skilfully milked for all its political mileage without addressing the grave issue of farmer suicides in India, which occur at the approximate rate of about 1,500 per annum and represent 11 per cent of the total number of suicides in the country.

Subsidies exist everywhere
Farmers are the holy cows of every country. They are the recipients of quotas, subsidies, and tax benefits not just in India but also in Europe and the U.S. In fact, benefits extended to the agricultural class in the West are significantly more than in India. According to a World Trade Organization filing, India’s total farm subsidy stands at $56 billion; this caters to approximately 120 million Indians who are engaged in full time or part-time cultivation.

In contrast, the U.S. pays out an average farm subsidy of approximately $20 billion to some two million farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural workers; the European Union pays €58 billion to its agricultural class that numbers slightly over 27 million. These numbers offer some perspective on the state of agricultural subsidies in India and where the focus of reform initiatives should lie.

Interestingly, studies into the causes of farmer suicide have not yielded(give,देना) any concrete results. It is usually found to be a confluence of pressures, of which indebtedness is a major but not primary factor. In a 2014 study, a prevalence of three factors accounted for almost 75 per cent of farmer suicides — land ownership of less than 10,000 m, excessive reliance on cash crops, and a debt of Rs. 300 or more.

The increasing vulnerability(weak,कमज़ोर,असुरक्षित) of this particular segment of farmers is a long story. In essence, however, the Green Revolution of the 1970s and early 1980s exacted a price in terms of soil salinity, fertiliser consumption, and water requirement. Farms that were not viable tried to get more bang for their buck by opting for higher yields through modified seeds and by growing cash crops. These were more expensive and susceptible to the vagaries of the market; if a crop failed, the burden of debt on a small farmer was enormous(large,बड़ा).

Small holdings stay unviable
Admittedly, the government has had several schemes for decades now to help farmers modernise their holdings. Unfortunately, the high initial investments required, in combination with negative incentives such as input subsidies (fertiliser, pesticide, water, electricity), have meant that small farms could not reap the benefit of these schemes and remained unmechanised, without micro-irrigation, and with poor crop storage facilities. Thus, small holdings continue to be unviable and the input subsidies that politicians eagerly announce do little to change this fact. In essence, government assistance does not usually reach the neediest segment. It is also a myth that frequent bank loan waivers alleviate(reduce,कम करना) the penury(poverty,गरीबी) of small farmers. In fact, most small farmers have hardly any collateral, and also fail to satisfy other conditions to qualify for bank loans in the first place. As a result, they turn to local moneylenders who charge exorbitant(higher,बहुत ज्यादा) rates of interest. As a 2012 government report revealed, 85 per cent of farmers who held less than 0.1 hectares of land had loans pending to moneylenders, while among those owning over 10 hectares, only 21 per cent resorted to borrowing from the unorganised sector. The methods that moneylenders use to recover their investment are legend, and likely the direct contributors to farmer suicides.

Living on the edge

The cumulative result of corruption, inefficiency, and lack of access to finance keeps small farmers in a high-risk category, where just a medical emergency or a marriage — even the poorest in India cannot abandon(give up,leave,छोड़ देना) extravagant marriage ceremonies — can tilt(To incline or bend from a vertical position,झुकाना) the balance from borderline sustenance to debt, poverty, and suicide.

Though the local requirements may vary from region to region, agriculture in India is desperate for a complete overhaul. This cannot be done in isolation(separate,स्वतंत्र रूप से) — if farmers are to be displaced from their lands, there must be alternative sources of income for them. In that regard, this government’s ‘Make in India’ programme is vital. If industry and manufacturing can absorb labour, with a little regulatory help, farm holdings can grow larger and become viable.

Yet, for industry to expand, it needs power and land. This is where the government’s efforts to reform land acquisition laws and improve the energy situation in the country interlock. Each sector carries part of the weight towards an eventual improvement in Indian agriculture and the lives of small farmers.

This is the set of reforms that politicians and the media need to be discussing, not the parasitic politics one has become accustomed to in this country.

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What makes cities really smart

Rather than grandiose(impressive,भव्य) plans, smart cities should focus on just three things: transportation, e-governance and easy land titling
There is no one definition for India’s proposed smart cities. The Ministry of Urban Development provides benchmarks for various services — maximum commute(convert,बदल देना) time should be 30 minutes in medium-sized cities and 45 minutes in metros; water availability must be 135 litres per capita per day; 95 per cent of homes should have shops, parks, primary schools and recreational areas within 400 metres, and so on. The proposed cities range from Varanasi to Dholera to Amravati, covering brownfield and greenfield areas. Benchmarks would be different for both; given lack of significant Internet penetration, brownfield smart cities cannot, for instance, focus on skyscrapers(tall building with many stories,गगनचुम्बी) or lavish(rich,expensive,खर्चीला,महंगा) promenades(mall,विहारस्थल) first.

City planning has undergone several changes since Independence. In the 1950s, regional planning and the city master plan grew in importance, but stayed divorced from the complex realities of a poor, independent, post-colonial country. While urban poverty rose, master plans fetishised about leisurely(easygoing,slowly,धीरे धीरे), low-density, spread-out cities, and obsessed over removing slums. This “high modernism” resulted in plans for newer cities. The National Commission on Urbanisation identified 329 cities called GEMs (Generators of Economic Momentum), which were further divided into National Priority Centres and State Priority Centres. Urbanisation was expected to grow along those corridors.

Bhubaneswar and Chandigarh were especially planned to represent modern India, emblems(symbol,प्रतीक) of “a new town, a symbol of India’s freedom, unfettered by traditions of the past” (Nehru, 1948). A ‘garden city’ with no high-rise buildings, Chandigarh’s wide boulevards broke the city into self-sufficient sectors, promoting liveability and exclusion.

However, the structure had its failures. Chandigarh’s urban planning was defined by an “absence of local authority, a lack of understanding of the local culture and values on the part of the planners, and the history of the region.” (Kalia, 1985, 135). In a survey of 21 cities in the Annual Survey of India’s City Systems (2014, Janaagraha Centre), Bhubaneswar and Chandigarh came close to the bottom in quality of life. Bhubaneswar scored low in urban capacities and resources as well as in transparency, accountability and participation.

Over time, national plans grew more reactive, and stuck to managing things as they were. A desire for better, cleaner, inclusive cities remained unfulfilled. We renamed more cities than building new ones.

The idea of a smart city, for most of the 20th century, was science fiction. But cities can now integrate critical infrastructure such as roads, rails, subways and airports; optimise resources better; and plan preventive maintenance. Given India’s finance crunch, any smart city we plan should focus first on three things: urban transportation, e-governance and land titling.

Urban transportation

For a sustainable city, public transport has to be the main artery. With metro systems viable only in large cities, integrated bus services will be primary. While the National Urban Transport Policy, 2006, pushed for public transport to rise from 22 per cent to 60 per cent, only 30 major Indian cities out of 90 have an in-place bus system. Even Delhi, with its extensive metro, faces significant gaps in its efforts to provide cross-sectional connectivity, with just 6,500 buses instead of 20,000. India’s bus services continue to be hamstrung(powerless,कमज़ोर) by limited or declining fleet sizes, loss-making services, inadequate(not enough,अपर्याप्त) resources, poor service quality and ignorance about modern vehicle technology.

Cities should design bus routes to ensure multi-modal integration. A city-level Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority, backed by legislation, should facilitate coordinated planning and implementation of transport projects. We need an intelligent software to improve systems for vehicle location, collecting online fares, priority signalling for buses, and real-time bus information. Cities should also set up Traffic Information Management Control Centres for effective enforcement and monitoring of traffic rules.

Financing this will require significant restructuring. A dedicated Urban Transport Fund, as seen in Ahmedabad, Bengaluru and Jaipur, should seek to generate inflows through advertisement revenue, additional vehicle registration fees and congestion taxes to fund new projects. A special purpose vehicle (set up in collaboration with the municipal corporation, city and private players), as seen in Indore and Jabalpur, could manage bus operations.

Better e-governance

The Indian government has experimented with various e-governance initiatives, most of which have failed to materialise, given poor cyber security and significant privacy and data protection risk. But the implementation of a secure ICT Infrastructure, comprising wireless hotspots, wi-fi networks, and fibre optic Internet delivery at home, remains fundamental.

E-governance could learn from these examples. The U.K.’s “Tell us Once” service allows citizens to inform public authorities about birth, death or significant life events just once. San Francisco’s DataSF.org displays public transportation arrival and departure times, recycle zones, crime patterns and more. Service requests for pothole repairs can be tweeted. Sweden has verksamt.se, both for entrepreneurs and for citizens to use theme-based portals on healthcare, taxation, etc. All procurement and invoicing is conducted electronically, restricting corruption.

Land titling

Providing affordable housing remains a critical challenge. The has been exacerbated(make worse,बिगाड़ देना) artificially by poorly conceived Central, State and municipal regulations, leading to land prices that are much higher than intrinsic levels. Urban development projects still have to undergo(experience,झेलना) a lengthy approval process — developers have to spend two-three years getting permissions from nearly 40 departments.

Titling issues and the lack of property rights information make this worse. While the law requires compulsory registration of the sale of land, it does not ask the registration authority to verify land history or ownership from the seller, weakening buyer protection and acting more as a fiscal instrument for the state, instead of a statutory support of certainty to title. Cities recognise presumed ownership to land, a questionable claim, which can be challenged on many fronts.

A smart city would provide formal digitised recognition of property titles, along with increasing transparency and registered brokers, cutting down long search times and high costs of acquiring real estate. A less cumbersome(difficult to handle,जटिल) process of accessing land records through the Department of Registration would increase its use, while helping to show actual transaction prices. Further, land inventory needs to be mapped comprehensively, and be accessible to buyers.

Globally, many countries offer streamlined online processes and incentives to facilitate affordable housing — these can include tax deductions, density bonuses, direct subsidies, land grants, land use changes etc. Many countries such as Malaysia and Canada have revamped their administrative requirements through fee waivers and fast-tracking procedures.

Smart cities can make daily life easier for residents simply by automating routine functions, and providing a basic transportation and housing network. Grandiose visions can be kept for later.

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Turkey’s long-ago slaughter of Armenians

Turkey’s acknowledgement of the tragic events of 1915 is important because it might begin a necessary and inevitable(compulsory,अनिवार्य,जरुरी) period of truth and reconciliation(adjustment,सामंजस्य)
Where do I look for hope on this day that marks the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide(killing of people on the basis of ethnicity, religion, political opinion, social status,जातिसंहार)? To the brave Turkish and Armenian human rights activists who have gathered in Istanbul this week to commemorate(remember via function,श्रद्धांजलि देना) together the tragic events of 1915 and find a pathway to the future.

The Turkish activists embrace(adopt,अंगीकार करना) a demand that has been voiced widely this month, from Pope Francis to the European Parliament, for the Turkish government to acknowledge that “genocide” took place in 1915. Turkey’s acknowledgement is important because it might begin a necessary and inevitable period of truth and reconciliation.

Listen to the voices of three Turkish organisers of the commemoration, which was arranged with an Armenian diaspora organisation called Project 2015. They explain why April 24, the traditional date of remembrance, is important for Turks as much as for Armenians.

“What we are trying to do is raise awareness of the genocide that happened in 1915,” says Levent Sensever, the general secretary of the Association for Social Change. This will be the sixth year he and other Turkish activists have gathered at Taksim Square to mark the genocide. “We challenge the official version, to get a real history so we can have a democratic country,” he says.

Ayse Gunaysu, one of the leaders of Turkey’s Human Rights Association, publicly memorialised the Armenian tragedy (using the banned word “genocide”) in 2005. “We commemorate ... because of feelings of shame and guilt for becoming aware of the genocide so late,” she said in an email. “We felt responsible for the ongoing, aggressive, gross, vulgar denialism, and also the crime committed by our ancestors.”

Mr. Gunaysu explains why it’s important for Turks to liberate their country from a false narrative about the past. “Without the extermination of the Christian peoples of Asia Minor, it would have been impossible to establish a Turkish nation-state. In order to persuade(belief,विश्वास दिलाना,मनाना) the new generations in Turkey that there was no genocide, a new Turkish identity was constructed based on lies. ... We believe that to make only one person question the official thesis is a victory in itself, as the recognition will come from below, not from above.”

Osman Kavala, the head of a cultural organisation called Anadolu Kultur, says that he uses the word “genocide,” but not all the time in his conversations with fellow Turks. It’s so loaded it may not be “the best tool” to encourage honest discussion of the past, he notes. “We try to explain that this is something Turks are doing for themselves. It’s in their own interest to be objective.” The Turkish government may not be ready yet to recognise genocide, Mr. Kavala says, but in the meantime, Turkish activists can take smaller steps, such as writing accurate textbooks or working jointly with Armenian groups to preserve religious and cultural sites.

I focus on these Turkish activists because this is a tragic anniversary for Turkey, as well as for Armenians. No country can be at peace with itself until it can reconcile past and present. The founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, called the forced deportation and slaughter of the Armenians “a shameful act.” That shame smoulders(fire with no flame,सुलगना) inside Turkey still, even as officials successfully pressure President Barack Obama and other leaders not to attach the name “genocide” to what happened.

One of the mysteries of this anniversary date is why Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan doesn’t seize the opportunity to write a new chapter in Turkish history, much as he has done in reaching out to Turkey’s Kurdish minority. Mr. Erdogan bears no responsibility for the genocide; he leads a movement to create a modern and dynamic Turkey. Last year, he offered condolences(expression of sympathy,शोक) to the Armenian people, but he hasn't taken the next step.

I don’t pretend to be objective about this issue. My late grandfather was born in the town of Kharpert in what was then the Ottoman Empire. He came to America in 1903 and lived a long and happy life. But members of his family who stayed behind were not so lucky. Two of his sisters made the death march across the Anatolian Desert. One died on the way, with most of her children. Another survived the desperate trek, clutching her Bible to her breast, according to family lore. She reached Syria and then, miraculously, America.

Armenians, like people everywhere who have experienced great tragedies, have a part of their souls that is forever in the shadows. But I felt some healing light, speaking with Turkish activists who want to acknowledge the past so they can walk honestly, with Armenians, into the future. — © 2015. The Washington Post

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Juveniles need reform, not prison

The Cabinet has decided to treat 16- to 18-year-olds as adults for ‘heinous’(deeply criminal,जघन्य) offences. This assuages(relieve,satisfy,कम करना,शांत करना) post-Nirbhaya rage but strongly violates the rights of the child.
By clearing amendments to the Juvenile(below 18 year,किशोर)
Justice Act and allowing juveniles between the ages of 16 and 18 to be tried and punished as adults for ‘heinous offences’ (offences that are punishable with imprisonment of seven years or more), the Cabinet on April 22 sounded the death knell for juvenile justice. It consciously overlooked the Parliamentary Standing Committee Report that found the transfer system proposed under the Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Bill violative of India’s constitutional mandate and its international obligations under the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child. The Committee had been particularly critical of the drastic approach of the Ministry of Women and Child Development, stating that “one must not forget that juvenile justice law is based on a strong foundation of reformation and rehabilitation, rather than on retribution”. It recommended that all clauses proposing “differential treatment of children between 16 and 18 years of age needs to be reviewed.”

Despite this, the Cabinet has approved the transfer system. The Press Information Bureau release states that the decision to transfer will be based on an assessment of whether “the crime was committed as a ‘child’ or as an ‘adult’”, to be undertaken by the Juvenile Justice Board that will have psychologists and social experts. What it does not spell out is that a child tried as an adult will end up in prison.

Can’t determine cause and effect
The edifice of the proposed system stands on three flawed assumptions: children are as culpable(guilty,आपराधिक) or blameworthy as adults; it is scientifically possible to determine maturity and mindset beyond reasonable doubt; and the transfer system will effectively deter(try to prevent,रोकना,कम करना) juvenile crime and enhance public safety, particularly of women.

Advances in neuroscience and studies by the Research Network on Adolescent Development and Juvenile Justice at the MacArthur Foundation, U.S., show that the human brain undergoes key physical changes from the ages of 16 to 18, and this continues right until the mid-20s. This evolutionary process of the brain primarily concerns risk-assessment behaviour that is directly tied to what we term as “maturity”. Though persons in this age group may ‘know what they are doing is wrong’, it has been shown incontrovertibly that they are unable to act on that knowledge and restrain themselves. This is precisely because at this stage they underestimate risk, are susceptible(weak,sensitive,अतिसवेंदनशील) to negative influences, and lack foresight. Their ability to understand legal processes and make decisions is not the same as that of adults. This is endorsed by an internationally renowned expert in child and adolescent psychiatry, Shekhar P. Seshadri, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, NIMHANS, Bengaluru. Professor Seshadri explains that “adolescents are less culpable than adults because adolescent criminal conduct is driven by transitory influences that are constitutive of this developmental stage. By nature of their psycho-biological profile, adolescents are greatly influenced by their environment, and too immature to weigh the consequences(result,परिणाम) of their actions.” This predisposes them to poor decision-making — a key factor that distinguishes them from adults. But, just as they can be influenced negatively, they can also be moulded in the right way. To try and punish them like adults and send them to prison would grossly violate their right to equality.

Latest research by Bonnie and Scott (2013) shows that individualised assessments of adolescent maturity are not possible and suggesting it can be done would mean “exceeding the limits of science”. The assessment thus proposed is fraught with errors and arbitrariness and will allow inherent biases(unfair treatment,पक्षपातपूर्ण) to determine which child is transferred to an adult court. When psycho-social maturity or mental capacity cannot be measured accurately, it would be a travesty(broad satire,farce comedy,मज़ाक) of justice if children accused of breaking the law are transferred to the adult system and ultimately sent to an adult prison based on such a flawed assessment.

Jail doesn’t reduce violent crime
Despite ample(full,more than enough,abundance,काफी,प्रचुर मात्रा में) evidence that punitive(punish,दण्डात्मक) laws do not improve public safety or deter juvenile crime, the government is bent on importing a failed Western model. The independent Task Force on Community Preventive Services set up by the U.S. Centre for Disease Control reviewed scientific evidence on the effectiveness of transfer laws and concluded that: “….transfer policies have generally resulted in increased arrest for subsequent crimes, including violent crime, among juveniles who were transferred compared with those retained in the juvenile justice system. To the extent that transfer policies are implemented to reduce violent or other criminal behaviour, available evidence indicates that they do more harm than good.” The U.S. is now closing down prisons and redirecting funds to community-based treatment programmes.

Instead of dealing with the root causes of juvenile crime, such as poverty, broken families, unregulated access to pornography, or the failure of the child protection system, the government seems to be blindly targeting adolescents. This is surely an erroneous strategy to protect women or to assuage the public outrage(anger,गुस्सा) after the Delhi gang rape, given that these juveniles will graduate from adult prisons as a much higher risk to the community.

Tragically, the grave human rights violations inherent in the transfer system were recognised by the multi-party Parliamentary Standing Committee, but dismissed entirely by the Ministry responsible for protecting children.

On being informed about the proposed law, a young boy who journeyed through the juvenile justice system said, “We learn everything from adults. From people who take drugs, we learn to take drugs; from people who make bombs, we learn to make bombs. And that is what we will learn when you send us to jail. So, if you send us to jail, we will become like them.” Another young woman, a victim of trafficking who went on to do the same to a 12-year-old-girl herself, said, “Please do not kill our spirit and hopes by sending us to jail. Help us, guide us, advise us, support us and show us the right path — don’t condemn(express strong disapproval,निंदनीय,दोषी ठहराना) us to a life in jail”.

With the Ministry and the Cabinet having turned their back, all hopes are pinned on Parliament to do what is right for India’s adolescent children.

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Revamping public procurement

A properly designed and implemented procurement law is long overdue. It can improve financial management, and bring large financial and governance benefits
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s 2015-16 budget speech signalled the government’s commitment to formally legalise India’s public procurement system as a part of its continuing reforms in public financial management. Following this, the Ministry of Finance is seeking suggestions to refine the Public Procurement Bill of 2012, introduced by the previous government.

The jurisdiction of the Bill covers any Ministry or Department and any public sector undertaking of the Union government, or any company in which the government has a stake of more than 50 per cent. The procurement processes of the States and the local governments are thus not covered by the Bill.

It is in this context that we focus on three aspects relating to the Bill: its potential benefits, selected design features, and implementation challenges.

Benefits

There are many benefits of a well-designed and well-implemented public procurement policy. These include fiscal savings from annual procurement expenditure; generating much needed fiscal space; and enhanced flexibility to channel government expenditure into growth-enhancing areas. It could also help in a shift towards rule-based institutional procurement.

However, the poor quality of data on procurement expenditure and its major components means that we don’t have a good estimate of potential savings from a better process. The problem needs to be addressed. Our crude estimate of potential savings generated by the revised Bill ranges between 0.6 per cent and 1.2 per cent of GDP, depending on the extent of efficiency achieved. This could assist in addressing the revenue deficit of 2.9 per cent of GDP projected for 2014-15 by the budget.

The savings would be greater if the States, whose expenditure equals that of the Union government, and all the public enterprises, also initiated similar procurement reforms. This task could be entrusted to NITI Aayog.

Several measures may be suggested to improve the design features. In its present form, the Bill’s objective is too complex, which dilutes(reduce,कम करना) accountability. Hence, a simpler set of objectives, as is also a global practice, would be desirable. This would also assist in improving the accountability of procuring agencies, and facilitate the task of internal and external auditing agencies.

Second, the Bill’s definition of the ‘procurement process’ implies that post-tendering steps such as contract management, payment, monitoring and so on, after the award of a contract, are excluded from the ‘procurement process’. The definition should be broadened to include the post-tendering procedures.

Third, given judicial delays and the lack of economic literacy often displayed by the judiciary, non-judicial procurement redress committees would be preferable. This needs to be better specified in the Bill to prevent undue discretion(awareness,समझदारी) by procurement agencies and redress committees.

Fourth, the international practice is to designate a nodal agency for procurement. Hence, we need to clarify whether the proposed Central Purchasing Organisation (CPO) will be such an agency. When a framework for the nodal agency is established, it will need to be reconciled with the decentralised procurement process, which has also been suggested by the two recent committees to the Indian Railways.

Fifth, the Bill is not applicable to procurements for less than Rs. 5 million, emergency procurements made for disaster management, and procurements for the purpose of national security. While excluding the latter two government activities is routine, the basis for discretion for procurements below Rs. 5 million, which is a significant amount, is not defined. The corresponding procedures for such procurements should also be specified.

Sixth, the Bill also permits the procuring entity to limit competition in order to achieve other objectives, as well as exempt certain procurements from any of the provisions in the legislation such as the transparency requirements in “public interest”. However, in case of limited competition, certain other requirements such as reporting requirements, advance contract award notice, risk management techniques should be introduced to ensure that transparency is achieved.

Once a revised Bill is passed by Parliament, the following implementation challenges will need to be addressed.

First, data management capabilities and standardisation must be enhanced. Both bidders and procuring agencies have significant data and information needs to ensure transparency in public procurements. Hence, the new procurement regime(government,शासन) needs to be accompanied by streamlined data and information systems for various aspects of public tenders that are put out and the standardisation of information provided in the submitted bids against the tenders.

Second, the 2012 Bill contains more than 20 references to ‘rules’. However, the general principles on which the rules will be based require clarity. Once defined in the Bill, the rules must be coherent(ordered,सुसंगत) and credible, while permitting flexibility.

Third, there is an implementation challenge concerning the skill sets of the officials, who will be at the interface of public procurement. Public procurement should be regarded as a task requiring professional skills. Capacity building in this direction should be undertaken urgently to ensure appropriate skill sets and that an understanding of business practices and logic is inculcated(instill,मन में बिठाना) in the officials and in the organisations seeking procurement contracts.

Designing and implementing a strong procurement policy is a long overdue step towards better public financial management, and it has large potential fiscal and governance benefits. Its early passage, therefore, should be a high priority.

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Three speeches, three futures

Last Sunday, Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi and Sitaram Yechury all put in very different performances, each insisting that they represent the people. Each party seemed to take the poor as a pretext for politics, yet is absent-minded about their real concerns
Politics has a strange way of making you rethink ideas and stereotypes(old belief,रूढ़िवादी) by merely juxtaposing(place side By side,निकट रखना) events. Just as one finishes typecasting persons and parties and feels smug(self-satisfied,आत्मसंतुष्टि) about such judgments, politics delivers a series of googlies forcing a rethink. Last Sunday, one saw such a juxtaposition of events when three leaders addressed mass meetings. The triad of speeches included one by Rahul Gandhi who was returning from his sabbatical(leave,छुट्टी) and addressing a kisan rally. In the second, Sitaram Yechury was taking over as the general secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) from his more tacitum predecessor, Prakash Karat. Finally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was addressing a rally of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers after his return from Canada.

Foil to the other

None of the three speeches was by itself exceptional. But each of the trio, and then together, created a conversation as if three hit movies had been introduced on the same day. The first surprise was that of Mr. Modi. He looked almost reluctant(unwilling,अनिच्छा) to be in India after the highs experienced after visiting Europe and Canada. In all his overseas visits, it is clear that Non Resident Indians (NRIs) dote(love,प्यार) on his nationalism and his alleged(declared,कथित रूप से) efficiency while he revels in their success and their enthusiasm for him. After the exciting NRI engagements, India almost seems banal(commonplace,साधारण) and disappointing to him, one could say. Mr. Modi, in his speech, seemed to complain about the Indian gene that discourages an approval of authority. The native Indian, unlike his counterpart abroad, is a determined contrarian. Worse, the Opposition seemed to have stolen Mr. Modi’s punch lines. His voice had more of a bully’s humour and he almost sounded like yesterday’s newspaper.

In contrast, Sitaram Yechury sounded human, relaxed, even casual. As visual appearances go, the careful grooming of Mr. Modi was not for him. Mr. Yechury almost looked like an absent-minded boy scout being asked to take over his party. He presented a clenched(tight,जकड़ना) fist which lacked a dramatic touch. This gesture was informal, almost absent-minded, as if he was flagging down an auto. Yet, one realised why he is the human face of the party. He sounded almost matter of fact. The CPI(M) tried to create a sense of drama but the performance on the podium appeared almost listless.

While Mr. Yechury enacted his leadership role, I looked at how Rahul addressed the kisan rally. For once he was coherent(ordered,सुसंगत), sentences flowed into each other; now, he seems ready to be a leader. Senior Congressmen smiled with content that their “slow” nephew had blossomed at last. The realists knew that he has years to go but at least for the 22 minutes he spoke, his spirit of leadership seemed willing.

Each leader enacted a characteristic script which acted as a perfect foil to the other. Mr. Modi began, didactic as ever, realising that his party has been slipping while he was playing to audiences abroad; the BJP is now losing initiative and is being seen as anti-poor and anti-farmer. Mr. Modi has begun to sound like a speaker at a FICCI meeting and when he declaims that his party has been pro-poor, he sounds hollow(empty,खोखला). The charisma is gone. The poor do not interest him. He projects them as a Congress conspiracy(unlawful act,षड़यंत्र). Now, Mr. Modi wants to talk of the second stage of development; of his exploits and negotiations abroad. He wants to tell his aspiring masses that his negotiations with France and Canada have enabled him to access nuclear energy. He sounds like Father Christmas but the audience is not convinced.

Rahul worked hard in presenting a pro-poor Congress, listing out the party’s attempts to waive rural debt, and remembering how he had promised to fight for them. He contrasted this with Mr. Modi repaying his electoral debt to the capitalists by selling land. He talked of the tribals from Niyamgiri, Odisha, as his little fiefdom, and cited(make reference,उल्लेख करना)  how 400 of them swore to him that if they lost their land, they would become naxalites. Rahul seems more alive, almost grateful for the land issue. What began as a morsel of an issue might turn out to be the crystal seed of a Congress revival. Rahul attacked Mr. Modi with ease contrasting the indifference of the BJP to the Congress’s attempt to side with the farmer.

Reinventing a party

I was watching the show with Kiran Majumdar Shaw of Biocon who detected a deep immaturity in the Congress. She claimed that in being a pro-farmer, pro-tribal, Rahul sounded anti-development. For a corporate leader, there is no greater heresy(unorthodox,अप्रमाणिक). She ended by saying that the Land Acquisition Act needs to be read and understood. Suddenly one realises that what one has on hand is a major class battle.

It is here that the CPI(M) was in the limelight(spotlight,चर्चा में). In his acceptance speech, Mr. Yechury was relaxed, uttering(express,कहना) a few happy lines in Telugu and Hindi. His ease of language was a foil to Rahul’s, and his relaxed sense of leadership, a dramatic contrast to Mr. Modi’s. Whether it is the Congress party’s masses or the CPI(M)’s classes, both seem ready to battle the aspiring generation of Mr. Modi.

There was a vestige(shadow,निशान) of scientism in Mr. Yechury’s speech. He talked of the objective situation and referred to the BJP as a communal party enacting the neo-liberal agenda. He accused the BJP of confusing history with mythology, of being anti-scientific. Like most Marxists, he appealed to history, claiming that history is on his side, inviting the CPI(M) to enter into battle with the BJP. Yet, he was so amiable(friendly,स्नेही) that one was not quite sure whether he was delivering a lecture on table manners or on class war.

One wished that there was less certitude and more doubt. He talked of his comrades(associate,साथी) dying in West Bengal due to the Trinamool Congress’s aggressive and violent ways. There was no moment of reflection, or of guilt that this culture of violence was initiated by the CPI(M) when in power. The personality of the man dominated the moment. With the entry of Mr. Yechury, even people critical of the CPI(M) felt that “acche din aagaye hai” (good times are here). In his speech, he did not have to strain(stress,जोर लगाना) for effect like Mr. Modi or Rahul had to. It was clear that the CPI(M) has found a leader who can reinvent the party of the future. However, his claim that socialism is the way for the future sounds happily old-fashioned.

One needs to contrast the atmosphere of the three speeches. The CPI(M) oozed(leak,बहना) a sense of solidarity. The Congress looked at its potential leader avuncularly(relate to elder,बड़े बूढो जैसा). There was a sense of hope, and of modest expectation. On the other hand, the BJP atmosphere was surly. Mr. Modi was almost disappointed with India and he told his cadres to work hard and ignore ‘the games of the media’. This response reminded one of sour grapes. The man who was, hitherto(so far,अभी तक), the darling of the media, suddenly felt that things are not the same. One could sense unease beneath the superficial(apparent,अल्पज्ञ) calm in his party. He realises that the BJP faces an uphill battle in Bihar and that his party has messed up the script in Jammu and Kashmir.

A hollowness

Even as the detached spectator prepares the report cards of the three men — awarding an ‘A’, ‘B’, ‘C’ to Mr. Yechury, Rahul and Mr. Modi respectively — there is an unmistakable sense of dread(fear,डर). One wants to join in the celebration of the prospect of revival of the CPI(M) and the Congress but there is clearly a degree of hollowness around this political exercise. One wonders whether the three parties can offer much to address the ongoing crises in agriculture, the way to revive the economy and open and good governance. All three thrive(grow,फलना फूलना) on old categories and have little sense of the future. There has never been a time where political ideas in the public sphere have lagged so far behind the imperatives of institution building. It is a strange time for India, what a friend called “a conspiracy of mediocrity(ordinary,साधारण कोटि का) and hysteria”. At this moment, a touch of civility almost seems like a moment of genius.

Each party seems to take the poor as a pretext for politics and yet is absent-minded about them. The Congress has a seasonal interest in the issues of the farmer. The CPI(M) has for long ignored issues related to marginal groups and instead focussed only on organised labour. The BJP prefers the middle class and finds the poor an obstacle(problem,बाधा) to development. One is almost desperate and wants to say “stop the train, I want to get off”. One faces a desperation, where the crisis of faith is so deep, that even a few morsels(bite,कौर) of hope make one grateful.

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